Braves at Phillies: How Should You Bet Game 4?

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 4.5 in F5 Innings (-126)

If not for the Philadelphia Phillies' 6-run outburst in yesterday's win, the first five innings would have gone under 4.5 runs in all three games of the series. With Spencer Strider back on the bump for the Atlanta Braves, I don't envision Philly having nearly as much early success.

Strider has been terrific this season. He finished the regular season with a 2.86 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), a 36.8% strikeout rate, and a league-leading 20 wins. He carried that over into his Game 1 start in this series, tossing 7.0 innings in which he allowed just a single earned run and struck out 8. That marked just the latest of Strider's absolutely dominant 2023 against the Phillies. Just take a look at his starts against them this season:

• 5/28: 6.0 innings, 2 hits, 2 earned runs, 9 strikeouts
• 6/20: 6.0 innings, 8 hits, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts
• 9/13: 7.0 innings, 4 hits, 1 earned run, 9 strikeouts
• 9/19: 7.0 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned runs, 11 strikeouts
• 10/7: 7.0 innings, 5 hits, 1 earned run, 8 strikeouts

He was awarded wins in four of those five starts with the only loss coming in this series' Game 1.

Sure, Strider had some blow-ups along the way, but despite some nutty advanced numbers, he still finished the season with a 3.86 ERA.

However, he's consistently brought it against their division rivals, even dating back to last season when he registered a 1.27 ERA and racked up 34 strikeouts in 21.1 innings against them. His utter dominance over Philadelphia makes the Braves ML (-154) an intriguing bet in itself.

But we're looking for some more juice and, based on how Game 1 went, I think we can find some chasing the first-five-inning under.

That's because, on the opposite side, Ranger Suarez has more than held up against Atlanta.

He won't go nearly as deep into the game as Strider, but Suarez proved plenty capable of locking down the Braves in short stints. He threw 3.2 one-hit, shutout innings against them in Game 1 and allowed just a single run in 6.0 innings of work against them in the regular season.

That's not exactly out of character, either. In 2022, Suarez posted a solid 3.21 ERA across 28.0 innings against the Braves.

He's proven it on the biggest stage, too. Suarez famously tossed 5.0 shutout innings in Game 3 of last year's World Series and owns a career 0.98 ERA in 18.1 postseason innings.

Both of these teams can (and will) mash. As we get deeper into the playoffs and bullpens start to wear thin, I'm less inclined to put faith in game-long plays given the variance that comes with bullpen arms.

For the first five innings, though?

Both Strider and Suarez have done enough for me to trust them early in a game that should have a World-Series-type feel to it.

Root for a quiet start, cash this first-five-innings wager, and then sit back and enjoy the chaos of the final four frames.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.