Biggest Winners and Losers From the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

In reality, not much changed last night in the release of the full 2025 NFL schedule.

We already knew who was playing whom and -- for the most part -- where. The teams with the toughest and easiest schedules were established. The things that weren't finalized were byes, the full international schedule, and travel.

But this is the NFL where every little edge matters. The biggest losers of last year's schedule release, by my numbers, were the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers, both of whom had nightmare seasons.

So, which teams saw their stock shift most on Wednesday night, and should it alter our view of their 2025 win total at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's dig into the numbers, seeing which teams' win totals rose or decreased most in my model after inputting the final touches last night.

Biggest Winners From the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

1. Minnesota Vikings

Win Total Increase: +0.13 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 8.5 (Over +100)

Because the Minnesota Vikings are in the NFC -- the AFC has an additional home game this year -- home-field was supposed to be a net negative for them this year.

Replacing two road games with international games will clear that right up.

The Vikings will play abroad in Weeks 4 and 5, both in games that were originally scheduled to be on the road. Those are two very winnable games, too, as they'll face the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, so extra win equity can go a long way.

The only negative of the Vikings' schedule is that they will face the Detroit Lions off a bye in Week 9. My model loves the Lions, so the Vikings' win probability there was already low, meaning it didn't ding them a ton. Still, it would have been nice given the leverage in that game.

It all sets up for a nice on-ramp for J.J. McCarthy. My model has the Vikings favored in four of their first five games, and the other is a true toss-up at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3. You probably couldn't have drawn things up better as they transition to a new era at quarterback.

2. Los Angeles Rams

Win Total Increase: +0.07 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 9.5 (Over -140)

As you can see, the team that got the second biggest boost moved up only 0.07 wins. It's important to keep that in mind: things didn't move much at all last night.

The formula for the Los Angeles Rams is simple: they -- like the Vikings -- had a road game removed thanks to an international tango with the Jacksonville Jaguars and don't face any teams coming off a bye. The Rams' win odds against the Jags increased six percentage points thanks to the neutral site, so that did the majority of the work here.

Still, I'm a smidge below market on the Rams. I've got their win total at 9.3, and they're +120 to go under 9.5 wins. It's not a big enough gap for me to fire right away, but they're a team I'll consider fading despite a nice little bump for them Wednesday night.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Win Total Increase: +0.07 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 11.5 (Over +105)

The tinfoil-hatters are emboldened yet again. You truly hate to see it.

Two things pushed the Kansas City Chiefs up on this list. The first is having their road game versus the Los Angeles Chargers moved to a neutral site. The second is that their road game against the Denver Broncos will follow the Chiefs' bye. Those are two critical divisional games, and they got at least a small reprieve for each.

The other small helper for the Chiefs is that the lone team they'll face off a bye is the Indianapolis Colts. With that game in Kansas City, the Chiefs could afford to have a bit trimmed off the spread there and still have lofty win odds.

Even with this, I'm a bit below market on the Chiefs, as well. They're sitting at 11.1 wins for me, and they're -125 to go under 11.5. Both the Chargers and Broncos are stiff competition in the AFC West, so the Chiefs will need their ducks in row to maintain their stranglehold on the division. Luckily for them, they did get at least some defense to those challengers on Wednesday.

Other Teams That Gained

Atlanta Falcons: +0.06 wins

Denver Broncos: +0.04 wins

Biggest Losers From the 2025 NFL Schedule Release

1. Cleveland Browns

Win Total Decrease: -0.08 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 5.5 (Over +120)

Honestly, if you're the Browns, holding two first-round picks next year and still (likely) searching for a quarterback, this isn't the worst fate.

The Browns already had the third toughest schedule, by my numbers, entering Wednesday. It took another hit thanks to the loss of a home date to an international game and having to face a pair of teams coming off bye.

One of those teams is the New York Jets, which is a (relatively) winnable game for the Browns. The Jets game also follows the Browns' bye, an advantage wiped out with the Jets also rested.

In reality, that cost them only about two percentage points of win equity, so it's not life and death. But I've got the Browns down for 5.0 wins, meaning any little boost there could have helped keep them out of the cellar.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

Win Total Decrease: -0.07 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 8.5 (Over +120)

The other team the Browns will face off a bye is the Steelers. That actually played a small role in landing the Steelers are on this list.

The bye for the Steelers comes before their most winnable game of the year as it is their home date with Cleveland. Ideally, you'd prefer to get that post-bye bump in more of a toss-up environment, and the Steelers have plenty of those. I've got the spread at less than two points for each of their first three games of the season.

The other -- bigger -- contributor is that the Steelers lost win equity by having their home game against the Vikings moved internationally. That went from being a toss-up to a game where I have the Vikings favored by more than 2.5 points.

It pushes the Steelers down even further for me, and I was already showing value on the under for their win total. I'd like to stand pat on that and wait for the market to react to Aaron Rodgers' inevitable (maybe?) signing, but either way, I'm excited for Mike Tomlin's witchcraft to bite me once again.

3. New York Jets

Win Total Decrease: -0.06 wins

2025 Win Total at FanDuel: 5.5 (Over -135)

Unlike the Steelers and Browns, I actually do have some interest in betting overs on the Jets. Wednesday sapped away a tiny bit of that enthusiasm.

We already discussed the fact that the Jets lost their bye by facing the Browns out of theirs in Week 10. The other factor that dinged them was their international game against the Broncos. That made net homefield neutral for the Jets rather than the plus they were supposed to get by being in the AFC.

Still, I have the Jets projected for 6.6 wins. Justin Fields has proven to be at least functional as a passer, that offensive line could kick butt, and the defense has studs at key positions. There are enough pieces in place for me to consider finding a way to buy in for Aaron Glenn's first season.

Other Teams That Fell

Jacksonville Jaguars: -0.06 wins

Miami Dolphins: -0.05 wins

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.