Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Wednesday 5/21/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Diamondbacks at Dodgers

Leg 1: Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-125)

Despite Corbin Burnes being on the mound for the D-backs, the Dodgers still have a 4.5 run line. Burnes did not allow a run over seven innings of work in May 10's meeting. Considering his 2.56 ERA thus far, under 4.5 runs (-102) is intriguing.

However, almost everything about Burnes thus far suggests regression. For example, he has a 4.27 xERA paired with a 4.27 SIERA and 3.95 xFIP. Additionally, he's in the 41st percentile of barrel rate allowed and 21st percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded. After 1.02 HR/9 allowed the last three seasons, Burnes is in the same ballpark at 0.99.

Of course, L.A. is loaded with sluggers, boasting the second-highest SLG, isolated power, and home run percentage. Yielding a homer tonight will be a concern for Burnes, especially with winds blowing out to right field. The Dodgers have plenty of lefties capable of going yard, including Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, but we will get to that later.

Burnes' pitch usage is led by a cutter (53.0%) and curveball (18.5%), and Los Angeles has the fifth-most runs above average against cutters and third-most when facing curveballs. The Dodgers are averaging 5.7 runs per game (third-most) and 6.1 over the last 10 games. We're just looking for the usual average from L.A. with this pick, and the matchup is certainly there against Arizona and Burnes.

Leg 2: Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

We mentioned the Dodgers' left-handed sluggers having a good matchup in this one. Not only does Burnes give up hard contact, but hits could get some lift thanks to wind pushing to the right wall. Of course, I'll avoid a home run prop for a Same Game Parlay, but we can still get slugging exposure through total bases.

Freeman continues to carry absurd numbers, including a .371 batting average while batting .423 in May. Similar to our pick for Aaron Judge to rack up two hits yesterday, why not keep backing these blistering hot streaks? The Dodgers' star first baseman has totaled at least two bases in three of the last four and four of the previous six outings.

Focusing on Freeman's matchup against Burnes, he's raking to the tune of .556 when facing cutters. Carrying this kind of mark against Burnes' pitch that has over a 50.0% usage rate should mean success. While Freeman bats only .231 against curveballs (Burnes' second-most used tool), he's also batting .346 against sliders and .571 when seeing sinkers -- Burnes' third and fourth-most used pitches.

Our MLB DFS projections have Freeman totaling 1.76 bases, which has a 52.5% implied probability (or -111 odds) for at least two bases.

Leg 3: Ketel Marte to Record an RBI (+135)

Ketel Marte missed about a month from a hamstring injury and was reinstated on May 2. He's finally getting enough games under his belt to trust some of the numbers we're seeing. He struggled early in the month and still has a .237 batting average in May, but Marte has picked it up of recent by totaling eight hits over the last six games.

With Marte batting second in the lineup, he's in a good spot to drive in some runs. In fact, he's totaled five RBIs over the previous six. Finding his stride at the plate has been a help, but so has been the production from Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. Carroll has a .597 SLG, totaled a hit in seven of the last eight, and bats .281 against right-handed hurlers -- which is relevant against right-handed starter Dustin May. Perdomo is raking with a .377 average this month and is enjoying an ongoing eight-game hitting streak.

Marte should have his chances with runners on base, and he's batting .375 and .393 against two of May's three most-used pitches (sweeper and four-seam fastball). While he's struggling against sinkers with only a .125 batting average this season (May's second-most used pitch), Marte bats .354 against the pitch over his career.

Arizona's second baseman also has the highest RBI projection for the Diamondbacks at 0.74. This has a 52.3% implied probability for at least one RBI (or -110 odds). That's excellent value compared to the +135 line carrying only a 42.6% implied probability.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +521

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.