Belgian Grand Prix Simulations: Can Daniel Ricciardo Earn Points at AlphaTauri?

If you read this piece last week, you'll know I entered Hungary with low expectations for Daniel Ricciardo.

Whew, buddy, was I wrong.

Although Ricciardo managed just a 13th-place finish, his speed was fantastic. After an incident on the first lap, Ricciardo fell to 18th. He was way behind.

That poor track position masks the fact that Ricciardo had the eighth-best median lap time of any driver in the field for the day. He benefited from both Alpines retiring early, but his time was better than that of Charles Leclerc, Fernando Alonso, and Lance Stroll. My jaw dropped once I saw his pace.

Not only was this the best median lap time relative to the field of any AlphaTauri driver this year, but it was the best since Pierre Gasly at Monaco last year. My model had Ricciardo below teammate Yuki Tsunoda entering Hungary; that aged poorly.

Obviously, we can't just say that Ricciardo now should be the eighth-ranked driver. The low prior we had on him was low for a reason, and it's just a one-race sample. But it does alter his outlook dramatically.

Here are the pre-practice simulations heading into Spa. As you can see, Ricciardo's much higher here than he was entering the Hungaroring.

After adding in last week's pace, the model now views Ricciardo in a similar tier to Gasly, Esteban Ocon, and Lance Stroll. Those drivers' top-10 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook for the Belgian Grand Prix are +130, +130, and -105, respectively. Ricciardo is +350.

Obviously, this means the model could be way off. It's based on a lot of extrapolation, so there's a big margin of error. Typically, when you're way off from the market, the market's more likely to be right than you are. But I do think -- at least directionally -- the model is correct with Ricciardo.

The implied odds of a top 10 at +350 are 22.2%. My model has Ricciardo at 40.5%. After the speed he showed in Hungary, I do think Ricciardo's a value for a top 10.

One thing I would note on the sims is that I believe some of the upside markets (podium and top-six) are a bit overselling the midfield. The attrition rate across Formula 1 has been much lower than historical precedent this year. If we expect that to continue, it's tough to envision someone like Ricciardo, Gasly, or Ocon pushing for that high of a finish.

I have lowered the incident rate in my model to account for this, but it's still higher than the circuit-wide mark in 2023. I think it may still be too high. As a result, I'd be skeptical of any mid-tier drivers showing up as betting values there as it relies on a regression in the incident rate toward past levels.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.