Back to Normal: Saquon Barkley Signs 1-Year Deal, Is a Fantasy Stud You Can Rely On

Things got a little hairy for a minute there between the New York Giants and star running back Saquon Barkley.

Earlier in the offseason, the Giants prioritized quarterback Daniel Jones over Barkley, signing Jones to a long-term deal and opting to use the franchise tag on Barkley. However, Barkley did not sign the franchise tender, and as training camp opened, the talented back began a holdout.

Fortunately, the player and the team agreed on a new one-year deal to resolve the issue for 2023. Barkley’s new deal reportedly includes $10.1 million in guarantees with a $2 million signing bonus and up to another $1 million in additional bonuses for reaching specific performance goals.

The end of Barkley’s holdout means the ultra-talented back can now be drafted in fantasy without any worries about his Week 1 availability. His do-it-all skillset and elite workload make him one of the best fantasy running backs out there.

Let's break down Barkley's outlook for 2023.

Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football Projections

(All projections via numberFire)

Positional Ranking: RB7

Stats:

• 297 carries
• 1,325 rushing yards
• 11.4 rushing TDs
• 49 receptions
• 303 receiving yards
• 2.0 receiving touchdowns

Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football Outlook

True RB1 Upside

Each year, there’s an awful lot of talk about which running backs can finish the season as an RB1 for fantasy football -- meaning a top-12 positional finish in fantasy points at the end of the season. For Barkley, there’s equally as much merit in discussing his chances of finishing as the overall RB1 in any given season. To quote the man who drafted him to the Big Apple, “It’s like he was touched by the hand of God, frankly.”

For those who weren’t there back in 2018, Barkley went second overall in the NFL Draft to the Giants after his dominant collegiate career at Penn State. He followed that up with an impressive rookie season and an Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2018, finishing as the half-PPR overall RB1 in fantasy football. His sophomore campaign was solid on its own (RB10), though slightly disappointing compared to his first. And unfortunately, his next two seasons were thwarted by injuries.

But Barkley rebounded in a big way in 2022, helping to lead Big Blue to a playoff berth while playing 16 healthy games. Barkley re-established himself as one of the most exciting running backs in the league while putting up big numbers for fantasy. He finished the year as the RB6 and had the second-most gains of 15 or more rushing yards, displaying his trademark explosiveness.

Barkley is one of the few backs out there we can pretty safely pencil in for something close to every-down work. His rushing volume, efficiency, and contributions in the passing game give him one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations of any player in the league.

Reliable Workloads Are Hard to Find

Now that the Giants have secured his services for the upcoming season, Barkley profiles as one of the safest running back picks in fantasy drafts. According to FantasyPros’ average draft position (ADP) data, drafters have been taking Barkley eighth overall this summer as the RB3 behind Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler -- and that's with Barkley's contract situation up in the air, so the fantasy community obviously feels pretty good about the Giants' star.

Barkley’s first season under head coach Brian Daboll was a smashing success. Daboll put his underdog Giants in beneficial positions throughout their surprising season, playing to the strengths of his roster -- in most cases, that meant feeding Barkley.

Barkley had 20 or more touches in 10 of his 16 games. Only Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry had more total touches than him last year, and Jacobs had the added benefit of an extra game (Barkley sat out the Giants’ mostly meaningless final game of the season). When things went right for the Giants, it put fantasy points on Barkley’s plate.

With Barkley signed for just one season, the Giants will likely deploy a similar offensive strategy in 2023.

A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

The Giants' offseason moves could help Barkley this coming year.

The team spent a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on a new starting center who could help bolster their underperforming line. While left tackle Andrew Thomas had a strong 2022 campaign, rookie right tackle Evan Neal struggled, contributing to Jones taking 44 sacks (the fifth-most in the league). If Neal takes a step forward in his second year and new center John Michael Schmitz solidifies the interior, Jones and Barkley could find themselves behind the best offensive line of their careers (the competition isn't too steep, though). However, PFF has the Giants' O-Line ranked just 29th coming into the season, so it's unlikely to be a great front five.

The team also made significant investments in their pass-catchers. Injuries devastated the Giants' wide receiver corps last season, but the acquisitions of veteran seam-stretching tight end Darren Waller and 2022 Biletnikoff-winner Jalin Hyatt could really help get the team's passing game rolling and give them a downfield element they didn't have a year ago.

Jones finished the 2022 campaign with the lowest average intended air yards per attempt (6.3 yards) across the entire league. He ranked outside the top 50 quarterbacks in percentage of pass attempts thrown 20 or more yards down the field.

There's a chance this attack becomes more explosive, though, thanks to the offseason additions, and if it happens, it can only be a positive for Barkley.

Verdict: Draft Barkley and Enjoy the Ride

This doesn't have to be super hard -- Barkley is going to get the ball a ton, and that's really good for fantasy.

Barkley's workload is one of the easiest workloads in the league to project. He is one of the few running backs who will see steady, elite volume week to week -- with a fair number of those touches coming via his receiving chops. There's obviously a ton of value in that, and it's why Barkley holds a first-round ADP.

He finished the 2022 season as the RB6, and Barkley is a safe bet for another top-notch campaign in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.