Australian Open Third Round Betting Guide: Friday 1/19/24

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Friday.

Australian Open Best Bets

Arthur Cazaux vs. Tallon Griekspoor

Griekspoor -2.5 Games (-114)

Wild card Arthur Cazaux -- a player who entered the Australian Open with a 1-5 career record in tour-level matches -- is coming off by far the biggest win of his career after ousting World No. 8 Holger Rune in the second round. Entering the tournament, Rune had the seventh-shortest odds to win the whole thing, so this is no small feat.

But as Cazaux's modest record shows, the 21-year-old is short on experience against top competition, playing the vast majority of his matches in Challenger events. It's hard to see him making it much further at a Grand Slam, and it isn't uncommon to see these upset winners suffer a letdown in the following match.

Tallon Griekspoor didn't exactly come into the event on a high note after dropping both of his matches in the 2024 United Cup, and his hard courts record over the last 52 weeks is an unspectacular 17-14 (55% win percentage).

But Griekspoor took out two top-40 players in the first two rounds (Cazaux is ranked 122nd), so it's not like he's had a cupcake schedule thus far. Ultimately, seeded players are expected to take care of business against wild cards, and for as well as Cazaux played against Rune, it's hard to see him maintaining that level again.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings project Griekspoor as a significant favorite, giving him a 72.0% win probability versus Cazaux. While that means there's arguably value on the Griekspoor ML (-156), which implies 60.9% win odds, the low spread is an appealing way to get more bang for our buck at just -114 odds.

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex Michelsen

Zverev -5.5 Games (-108)

In the last round, Alexander Zverev narrowly escaped a massive upset against qualifier Lukas Klein, who took him to the brink in a five-setter that ended in a 10-7 tiebreak.

While that might not look great on paper, finding ways to overcome adversity like this can actually be a confidence booster for top seeds like Zverev, as making deep runs at Grand Slams is as much mental as it is physical.

It's also not like Zverev entered the Australian Open in poor form, either. Unlike Griekspoor, Zverev quite enjoyed his United Cup experience, going 4-1 in singles play while knocking off top-10 players Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz. His strong play would help Germany defeat Poland to win the event.

Expanding further, Tennis Abstract ranks Zverev as the field's sixth-best player when accounting for the surface, which aligns with his odds to win this event.

All this is to say American Alex Michelsen will be up against it despite coming off a big win against World No. 23 Jiri Lehecka. The 19-year-old could have a bright future ahead of him, but it's a lot to expect him to pull off the upset in his first-ever match against a top-10 player.

Zverev is a -650 favorite, which is obviously a no-go here, but this spread isn't too outlandish to take a shot at, particularly at nearly even odds. The German would still cover in a standard straight-sets win (6-4, 6-4, 6-4), and it's not so high that he couldn't still get there in a four-setter.

All FanDuel Sportsbook customers can get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ Leg Parlay on the Australian Open! Your wager must be placed prior to 11:59PM ET on 1/21/24. See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.