Arkansas Derby Betting Odds and Contenders Preview for 2026

Key Takeaways:

• The Arkansas Derby shapes as a tactical horse racing event, with limited confirmed speed in the field and positioning likely to play a decisive role from the opening stages, and offers 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby points to the top five finishers.
• Local prep form continues to carry weight at Oaklawn, particularly from the Rebel, which has produced a steady stream of recent Arkansas Derby winners.
• Renegade enters as the established class of the field, bringing a proven stakes win and the kind of finishing strength that keeps him firmly at the center of the conversation.
• Litmus Test looks poised to move forward second off the layoff, and equipment changes combined with a favorable outside draw could help him settle into a more efficient trip.
• Blackout Time offers upside with race fitness now in place, and his ability to secure forward position gives him a realistic chance to stay involved once the gates open.

The final leg of the four-race Oaklawn spur of the Kentucky Derby trail happens Saturday, March 28, in the Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. Not only does it offer one of the biggest purses of the year, but the qualification points are huge, too: 100-50-25-15-10 to the top five finishers, meaning we’ll see the top two horses in Kentucky, and perhaps even one or two others.

The 2026 Arkansas Derby drew a field of nine, though eight are expected to run. The proven stakes stars in the field include Sam F. Davis winner Renegade, Southwest (G3) winner Silent Tactic, and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Litmus Test. Last year’s Champagne (G1) winner Napoleon Solo was entered in this race, but will be rerouted to the Wood (G2) at Aqueduct instead.

Three winners of the Arkansas Derby have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Sunny’s Halo (1983), Smarty Jones (2004), and Triple Crown champion American Pharoah (2015). More recently, Mystik Dan, who finished third behind Muth in the 2024 Arkansas Derby, saved his best for Louisville and won the blanket of roses in a thrilling photo over Sierra Leone and Forever Young.

Arkansas Derby 2026 Information

• Race Date: Saturday, March 28, 2026
• Track: Oaklawn
• Post Time: 6:48 p.m. Central Standard Time
• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Age/Sex: three-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV, Fox Sports 1
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Arkansas Derby Odds

This is the field for the 2026 Arkansas Derby, including post positions, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds for each horse.

Note that a morning line was assigned for Napoleon Solo, but he is expected to scratch and run on April 4 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Redland Rebels is cross-entered in the Florida Derby, but is expected to run in Arkansas.

Arkansas Derby Prep Results

Among the eight horses expected to contest the Arkansas Derby, five last raced at Oaklawn. Three come out of the Rebel (G2), the local prep for this race. Though Rebel winner Class President does not turn up – he may race in the Blue Grass (G1) next week at Keeneland – runner-up Silent Tactic, third-place Litmus Test, and fourth-place Blackout Time all get another shot at glory in Hot Springs.

Two horses come out of non-stakes races at Oaklawn as well. Exosome comes out of a neck victory in a 1 1/16-mile allowance-optional claimer on February 28, a race for which he wore blinkers for the first time. Taptastic, the least experienced horse in the field, won a maiden mile over a muddy Oaklawn course in his debut on March 8.

Everyone else comes out of Kentucky Derby points races elsewhere. Renegade is the only horse in the field coming out of a stakes win, which came over Florida Derby entrants Wayne’s Law and The Puma in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on February 7. Redland Rebels also comes out of a race at Tampa; he set the pace and settled for fourth behind The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 7. Bricklin tracked the pace and chased on for third in the Sunland Derby on February 15, a race that was franked when winner Pavlovian finished a narrow second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last weekend at Fair Grounds.

Napoleon Solo, who is expected to scratch, was most recently fifth behind Commandment in the Fountain of Youth (G2), his seasonal debut.

Arkansas Derby Contenders

These are the contenders in the 2026 Arkansas Derby, organized by post position:

1. Redland Rebels: He looks like the speed of the speed, especially with outside-drawn Litmus Test taking off the blinkers. The way this race set up, no wonder Patrick Biancone put Redland Rebels on the plane to come here instead of keeping him in Florida: this race drew very little in the way of definite early gas, and speed plays well in dirt routes at Oaklawn. (Litmus Test and Bricklin can also show some pace, but neither needs to go.) Whether he’ll be good enough to close the deal (or stay the 1 ⅛ miles) is the question, especially since his pedigree is questionable for it, but he could be worth a long shot chance in exotics, especially if the track is speed-favoring.
2. Silent Tactic: He has emerged as the big horse on the Arkansas spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, winning the Southwest and finishing second in both the Smarty Jones and the Rebel. His pedigree is replete with stamina, meaning he’ll love this 1 ⅛-mile distance (and perhaps beyond). The biggest question on the win end is the pace; he’s a late runner most of the time, meaning he won’t get a perfect setup – but even when things have been slow in front of him, he has still been able to battle for second.
3. Blackout Time: He has tables to turn from the Rebel last out, as he was well behind both Silent Tactic and Litmus Test when fourth. However, he is trained by Kenny McPeek, a trainer who is never afraid to race his horses into shape. The Rebel was his first start since Keeneland in October. Especially since there’s plenty of distance on both sides of his pedigree, and he has enough early speed to get good placement and first run on the leaders, he has a world of upside.
4. Bricklin: An allowance winner two back over this track, he shipped west for the Sunland Park Derby, stalked the pace, and just could not keep up with Pavlovian and Express Kid in the lane. Turns out, Pavlovian is actually pretty good, as he showed last week when second in the Louisiana Derby. Still, he needs to prove that he’s either fast enough to keep rail-drawn Redland Rebels and perhaps outside-drawn Litmus Test in range, or that he can rate and rally like he did in his maiden win, but against much better foes here.
5. Taptastic: The least experienced horse in the field, Taptastic just has a debut maiden win under his hooves – and over a muddy track, at that. The running style in his debut was nice, a good stalk-and-pounce kind of trip that he worked behind a modest pace. And, being by Tapit out of the classy Curlin mare Valadorna, he has a good chance to handle the distance. But, he’ll have to go much faster this time against more seasoned foes…this may just be too much, too soon.
6. Renegade: Renegade earned his official maiden-breaker last out in the Sam F. Davis, a race that has already been franked when third-place The Puma came back to break his own maiden in the Tampa Bay Derby next out. Between that and his battles with Paladin last year, Renegade stands as the class of the field. Running style is a bit of a question, as he won’t get a lot of pace to rally into, but he was able to rally into a slow pace last out in the Sam F. Davis, so he could be less pace-dependent than most closers.
7. Napoleon Solo: Napoleon Solo is expected to scratch from the Arkansas Derby and race in the Wood Memorial instead.
8. Exosome: The addition of blinkers moved this Kelsey Danner trainee forward last out, both literally and figuratively – he shifted from a midpack-to-closing style to a stalking one, and he fought on to win by a neck. That won’t be a bad running style for this race, but on the other hand, that race didn’t come back particularly fast, and now he faces honest-to-goodness stakes horses, a level he couldn’t quite run to when sixth in the Lecomte (G3) three starts back.
9. Litmus Test: Trainer Bob Baffert is tough when he ships to Oaklawn, and even tougher when he leaves a horse there for a while before another start there. The Arkansas Derby was obviously the plan for Litmus Test, as he has worked twice in Hot Springs since the Rebel and gotten some time to settle in. His tactical speed should be a positive, and he has upside second off the lay. If taking the blinkers off makes him just less keen than he was last out, but he still keeps his tactical speed, he shapes as a serious contender.

Arkansas Derby Past Winners Past Performances

Among the 11 Arkansas Derby winners in the last 10 years (there were two divisions in 2020), the Rebel has been the most important prep race. Six of those 11 winners came straight out of the Rebel. Magnum Moon (2018), Omaha Beach (2019), and Nadal (2020) won it; Creator (2016) and Sandman (2025) were third; and Super Stock (2021) was fourth.

Two others came out of points races at other tracks. Classic Empire (2017) was second in the Holy Bull (G2), while Angel of Empire (2023) shipped to Arkansas out of a victory in the Risen Star (G2). One came out of a stakes race that did not offer points: Muth (2024) won the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita in January, then resurfaced in the Arkansas Derby.

The other two recent winners came out of allowance races. Cyberknife (2022) came out of an allowance win at Fair Grounds, though he had previous graded experience. Charlatan (2020), who came out of a Santa Anita allowance win, was the only winner in the last ten years who made his graded debut in the Arkansas Derby.

Arkansas Derby: 3 Best Bets

These are the three best bets in the 2026 Arkansas Derby:

1. Litmus Test (6-1)

Horses coming out of the Rebel often win the Arkansas Derby, and the most appealing of the last-out Rebel horses is Litmus Test. He set the pace before being overhauled last out, but now a few more things weigh in his favor. He takes off the blinkers, so he could tap into a more tactical style that won him the Los Alamitos Futurity last year. And, the outside in a likely field of eight means he should be able to get a good tracking trip.

He also has had some time to get settled in at Oaklawn – he shipped out from Bob Baffert’s California base for the Rebel, but Baffert has kept him in Hot Springs to prepare for this. That is often a winning move for Baffert. And, though he loses Flavien Prat (who sticks with Commandment in the Florida Derby, so that’s no red flag), he gets Francisco Arrieta – a jockey not as well known on the biggest stages, but a strong rider who knows Oaklawn very well.

2. Renegade (3-2)

The only trainer who has won as many editions of the Arkansas Derby as Bob Baffert is Todd Pletcher, who comes in with a strong contender in Renegade. He reigns as the class of the field, between his form through Paladin last year and his strong win in the Sam F. Davis, a race that has been franked since third-place The Puma came back to score in the Tampa Bay Derby next out. Irad Ortiz travels out to keep the mount – and though Ortiz doesn’t ride regularly at Oaklawn, he has won two of his seven starts in Hot Springs this meet and hit the board in six of them, meaning he knows how to come correct.

The biggest question is his off-the-pace running style, since there isn’t likely to be a hotly contested pace for this race. However, his Sam F. Davis points to raw ability. After all, he had a sluggish pace in front of him that day, and he was able to not only move in time to make a race of it into the stretch, but finish with enough flair to draw off by 3 ¾ lengths in the end. If he taps back into that ability? Even though this is a deeper field, a repeat of that effort makes him a major contender, and any improvement makes him downright tough.

3. Blackout Time (6-1)

He is another who comes out of the Rebel, the richest source of Arkansas Derby winners in recent years, and although he finished fourth in that race, he has a lot of upside to move forward. He’s a Kenny McPeek horse, and McPeek has no qualms about racing a horse into shape, and it looks like that’s what was going on here. The Rebel was his first start since October at Keeneland. Looking at last year’s form, his debut maiden race was fine, but his second-up effort was a good-looking improvement.

If he improves second-up this time? He should be on or near the pace in a race without a ton of early speed entered in it. Though his lone race came battling on the pace and opening up, his Grade 1 placing at Keeneland last year showed he can run well in a stalking shape as well, since he beat everyone but Ted Noffey that day. It suggests he has room to step up off that first race of the season, and if he does, he has a right to outrun his odds.

Arkansas Derby Undercard

The Arkansas Derby is the 13th of 14 races on Saturday’s massive Oaklawn racing program. The card features three other stakes races, including the $500,000 Oaklawn Mile (G3) for older horses, the 1 ½-mile Temperence Hill for long-distance horses, and the 1 1/16-mile American Pharoah Overnight for older horses who haven’t won a stakes last year or this year.

With six- and seven-figure purses all day long, not just in Arkansas but also in major races like the Florida Derby (G1), Saturday is one of the biggest Thoroughbred racing days of the season. Watch all day at FanDuel TV, and get your bets down online through FanDuel!

Oaklawn Park History

Back in 1905, the Hot Springs Mayor declared a half-day holiday for the opening of Oaklawn Park, with over 3,000 people attending the track on its first day of horse racing. The holiday heralded the beginning of a tradition that has lasted for over a century!

Due to political issues, no racing took place at Oaklawn Park between 1907 and 1916, but after a sustained period of action, the now-famous Arkansas Derby was inaugurated in 1936 with a purse of $5,000 offered to entrants.

By 1952, Oaklawn Park could boast daily attendances of almost 8,000 people and an average daily handle of well over $400,000, figures which rose by the turn of the decade to 10,000 and $500,000, respectively, with the Arkansas Derby purse increasing to $50,000 by 1965.

The track continued to go from strength to strength, and during a 50-day meeting in 1970, an average of 11,000 people were attending daily, with over $43,000,000 wagered over the course of the meet.

In the mid-70s, Oaklawn gave birth to the Racing Festival of the South, with pari-mutuel wagering amounting to a cool $80,000,000 that season, and by the 80s, over a quarter of a million people were attending the festival each year. By then, the purse for the Arkansas Derby was up at $500,000, and a new single-day attendance record was set with 71,000 showing up to see Rampage win the big race in 1986.

Ten years later, Arkansas Derby day saw a total handle of over $10.5 million, and by the turn of the millennium, Oaklawn was still seeing increases in attendance and wagering, meaning the track stands as one of the most thriving horse racing scenes in the country at present.

Arkansas Derby FAQ

Q: When is the Arkansas Derby?

A: The 2026 Arkansas Derby will be run Saturday, March 28 at 6:48 p.m. Central Daylight Time. It is the 13th of 14 races on the day.

Q: Where is the Arkansas Derby?

A: It takes place at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Arkansas Derby?

A: Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert are the joint leaders with five Arkansas Derby wins apiece. Each has a shot to take the record alone: Pletcher sends out Renegade, Baffert sends out Litmus Test, and both shape as credible contenders.

Q: Who is the favorite for the 2026 Arkansas Derby?

A: Renegade, winner of the Sam F. Davis for trainer Todd Pletcher, is the 3-2 morning-line favorite for the Arkansas Derby. Between the fact that he held his own with Paladin as a juvenile and then came back so strong for his first start at three, he should hold his spot at the top of the market.

Q: Who is the best Arkansas Derby jockey?

A: Mike Smith and Pat Day lead all riders with three wins each. Day is retired, and Smith does not have a call in the 2026 edition. All the riders in the 2026 edition are looking for their first Arkansas Derby victory.

Q: Who won the 2025 Arkansas Derby?

A: Sandman won the 2025 Arkansas Derby for trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz. Ortiz does not have a call in the race this year, though Casse sends out Silent Tactic with Cristian Torres in the saddle.

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