Aaron Rodgers Has Some Fantasy Value With Gang Green

In a season where he will turn 40 years old, Aaron Rodgers is not far removed from winning the league MVP in two of the past three campaigns.

Already a future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, Rodgers has very publicly taken his talents to the Big Apple to join the New York Jets. He will immediately inherit a higher-ceiling offensive skill group compared to the unit he left with the Green Bay Packers.

How will Rodgers do in fantasy football in 2023 in his new surroundings after he posted a down 2022 season?

All projections via numberFire.

Aaron Rodgers 2023 Fantasy Football Projection

Fantasy Points: 293.97 (251.3 in 2022)
Ranking: QB12
Stats:

• 381 completions in 579 passing attempts (65.8% completion rate)
• 4,098 passing yards
• 29.8 touchdown passes
• 6.0 interceptions
• 171 rushing yards
• 1.4 rushing touchdowns

Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Outlook

Last year, Rodgers' play through 17 contests (251.3 total FanDuel points) was good enough to be just the 13th-best fantasy quarterback (80th overall player). That is a step down from his two recent MVP tilts -- where he finished the season ranked as the No. 2 (405.1 FD points in 2020) and No. 5 signal-caller.

Which direction will the four-time NFL MVP trend in his 19th season out of UC Berkeley?

Changes for New York Heading Into 2023

The Jets have seemingly dominated the headlines through the most recent offseason.

Over the past five months, their acquisition of Rodgers was heavily reported on (thanks in large part to The Pat McAfee Show) along with the quarterback gallivanting through Manhattan with reigning NFL DROY Sauce Gardner. Jessica Alba was involved as well, so you know it's serious. Oh, and then it was announced that Gang Green will reportedly be the next team featured on HBO Hard Knocks despite not volunteering.

All the off-field antics aside, there will certainly be distractions in the city, but getting Rodgers meshed with his new unit will be priority number one.

The 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson, will need to be Rodgers' go-to target. Last season, the Ohio State product dazzled behind 83 receptions (on 147 targets) for 1,103 yards and 4 scores. That was enough to produce 174.2 FanDuel points, which was the 21st-best of all wide receivers in 2022. Not bad for a rookie.

Rodgers' friends Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb along with Corey Davis, Denzel Mims and Mecole Hardman will round out an experienced receiving corps. At tight end, C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin are both serviceable options in the passing game.

As was always the case in Green Bay, Rodgers will have the ability to lean on an effective running game. Explosive second-year tailback Breece Hall is trending toward availability in Week 1 after tearing his ACL early last season. Additionally, Rodgers has reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in New York. Hackett was Rodgers' OC during two of his four MVP seasons.

Opportunity Cost: Where Is Rodgers Being Drafted?

Per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, Rodgers' ADP is 104.0, and he's ranked as the QB17.

With the influx of dual-threat signal-callers in recent years, quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields will be long gone while Rodgers looms on the board -- just as he did that fateful NFL Draft day in April 2005.

Rodgers has always had quality mobility in the pocket, but he has never been considered a true dual threat. His best rushing numbers came back in 2016, running for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. Perhaps he will sneak a few into the end zone this year, but given Rodgers' age, we can't expect much more than that. The lack of rushing makes it really hard for Rodgers to match the floor/ceiling combination of the elite fantasy quarterbacks, which is why his ADP is where it is.

Still, how often do you need to scramble for positive yardage when you are one of the most accurate passers of the pigskin ever? In 7,660 regular-season pass attempts, Rodgers sports a sharp 65.3% completion rate. Additionally, his career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 520-to-118 or 4.41-to-1 (including playoffs), which is the best qualified mark in NFL history.

Final Verdict

Considering the amount of dual-threat quarterback talent in the league right now, you will not need to beat down the door to draft Rodgers. If you find yourself without a signal-caller after the first couple tiers of passers are off the board, you can feel confident about settling on AR12 -- who is technically AR8 again after electing to use his college number for the 2023 campaign.

The Jets are looking to get back in the New York groove. They have the talent on both sides of the ball to do so, but like Reggie Jackson was for the Yankees, Rodgers will need to be "the straw that stirs the drink" in the Big Apple. It will be intriguing to see how Rodgers does with a young, talented core surrounding him. Will he thrive in Gotham, or will he live long enough to see himself become the villain? Oh, wait ...

If your fantasy football approach is to go heavy on running backs and receivers in the early rounds, keep Rodgers in mind. He could have one more big fantasy season in him.

The 2023-24 NFL season should be a blast; cue "I'm So Excited" by The Pointer Sisters.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.