4 NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 17

Finding value is a key part of NFL DFS on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 17

Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: $6,600

There are some stud quarterbacks on the slate -- but also a lot of high-end running backs to want to roster -- so being receptive to value at other positions is something to...be receptive to.

While Michael Penix Jr. burned us last week from a fantasy point total perspective (7.38), he did post some good efficiency numbers even after adjusting for opponent.

Penix threw 27 times for just 202 yards and an interception (that went through the hands of Kyle Pitts to thwart a great scoring opportunity for the Atlanta Falcons).

In terms of EPA per play numbers, Penix posted a +0.14 after adjusting for opponent (league-average, naturally, is 0.00) plus a 55.2% passing success rate (league average is 45.1%), per NextGenStats.

Penix also suffered from a 7.4% drop rate, more than twice the NFL average of 3.2% and an uncharacteristic one for the Falcons, as Kirk Cousins has dealt with just a 1.8% drop rate this season.

This week, the Falcons are set to be in a more competitive game with the Washington Commanders (a 4.5-point spread with a 47.5-point total) than what they had last week with the New York Giants (a 34-7 win).

Washington ranks just 21st in adjusted pass defense this season, via numberFire's metrics.

Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $5,900

With only nine games on the board and a ton of low totals, it can get easy to get bunched up on certain games. This Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers game is one that's pretty easy to like.

Jalen McMillan and the Buccaneers are in a game with a 48.5-point total, and while the spread is 8.5 points, that actually gives the Bucs the highest implied team total of the week.

And we can get the WR2 in the offense for a sub-$6,000 salary.

McMillan has scored four times in his last three games with yardage outputs of 59, 75, and 57 on 7, 6, and 7 targets. Without the scores, the ceiling is a bit low. With them, he's scored 19.9, 16.0, and 14.2 FanDuel points.

The situation this week is such that McMillan -- at a $5,900 salary -- has +135 odds to score as of Friday morning.

The touchdowns will dry up eventually, but remember, the Bucs are set up to score this week against the Panthers, who are 30th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics.

McMillan is fresh off of an 84.3% snap rate, his best of the year, and he has run a route on at least 80.0% of the team's drop backs in four straight weeks.

While the yardage hasn't exactly been there yet, McMillan is averaging 3.5 downfield targets (at least 10 air yards) per game.

On downfield targets for the full season, McMillan has a 39.3% catch rate (Tampa's WR average is 51.1%) and -114.9 yards over expectation (via NextGenStats). The RYOE number is eighth-lowest in the league.

Carolina is 32nd in pressure rate and 23rd in yards per target allowed on downfield throws, so McMillan could course correct this week on some downfield looks, too.

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: $5,100

For a Panthers team that has cycled through a lot of wide receivers, it's pretty clear that the team wants to have Jalen Coker on the field down the stretch.

In Week 10, Coker played on 89.7% of the team's snaps. He hadn't played over 67.8% in any game prior (and also missed the first three weeks of the season entirely).

Coker then missed Weeks 12, 13, and 14 -- but returned to that scaled-up role with snap rates of 86.0% and 83.1%.

But it's not just snaps for Coker. It's targets. And some high-leverage ones, too.

Coker has a 25.0% target share in his three most recent games with an 86.1% snap rate, a 92.6% red zone snap rate, and an 81.4% route rate overall.

He's averaging 53.0 yards per game with 69.0 air yards per game. His red zone target share is 30.0%, and his end zone target share is 42.9%.

The team is still pretty run-heavy in the red zone, which is why it's nice to see 3.7 downfield targets (10-plus air yards) per game for Coker in this split.

Against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks just 28th, per numberFire, this is about as good a spot as we're going to get for a value wideout the rest of the season.

Payne Durham, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

FanDuel Salary: $4,600

Payne Durham could be slotting in as a nice value tight end play at a salary of just $4,600 this weekend.

Cade Otton (knee) missed practice the first two days of the week. He did the same thing last week before a limited practice on Friday and ultimately missing Week 16's action. Otton's salary is only $5,300 and would stand out as a value if he sheds his injury designation by kickoff.

But back to Durham for now. In Week 16, Durham saw a drastic role increase.

Durham played 92.9% of the snaps, ran 80.0% of the routes, and saw a 16.3% target share -- all season highs.

On his 7 targets, Durham had just 29 yards on 5 catches but did get two downfield targets. He also played on all seven red zone snaps.

Durham may not have substantial yardage upside, but he clearly has a role here (if Otton were to sit), and he's playing on a Buccaneers team that has the week's highest implied team total.

As of Friday morning, Durham has the same +210 odds to score as Cade Otton, which is telling about his potential role without Otton.

So let's monitor this situation to see if we can get tight end exposure to the slate's top-projected offense by implied team total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.