4 NCAA Tournament Prop Bets for Thursday's Sweet 16 Games

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
4 NCAA Tournament Prop Bets for Thursday's Sweet 16 Games

The NCAA Tournament continues this week, and we can get into the action by checking out prop bets for all of Thursday's Sweet 16 games via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For bettors, numberFire's Matchup Heat Map helps identify favorable game environments, while KenPom and Sports-Reference offer a wide range of team-level statistics. We can also turn to Bart Torvik and RealGM for advanced player stats and splits.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and dive into our wealth of statistical data to find Thursday's best prop bets.

Please note lines are subject to change after this article is published.

College Basketball Prop Bets

(6) Clemson vs. (2) Arizona, 7:09 p.m. ET

Pelle Larsson 2+ Made Threes (+130)

Arizona wing Pelle Larsson has nailed multiple threes in four consecutive games dating back to the Pac-12 tournament. The senior is a career-40.1% shooter from beyond the arc, and he's shooting a blistering 44.1% from deep this season.

Yet, Pelle Larsson 2+ Made Threes is +130 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I'm all over that line in a matchup with 6-seeded Clemson.

The Tigers have won consecutive NCAA Tournament games as underdogs -- though they'll be hard-pressed to cover the spread against Arizona.

Clemson is up to 38th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, but they continue to allow a high rate of three-point attempts. Among tournament teams, Clemson's 40.5% three-point attempt rate allowed is the fourth-highest. Among 94 high-major teams, it's 21st-highest.

For the season, the Tigers have surrendered an average of 24 three-point attempts per game. Dating back to the ACC Tournament, they've given up 76 three-point attempts in three postseason games (25.3 per game).

That high rate of attempts should lead to Pelle Larsson hoisting from deep, continuing an ongoing trend over the second half of the year. Since January 1st, Larsson has hit this mark in 11 of 22 games (50%). That's a tick higher than the 43.5% implied chance we get from his +130 odds.

Given his stellar efficiency from beyond the arc, I expect Larsson to stick at least two triples on Thursday night.

(5) San Diego State vs. (1) Connecticut, 7:39 p.m. ET

Tristen Newton Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-104)

Connecticut point guard Tristen Newton does it all for the Huskies with per-game averages of 15.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game.

The All-Big East First Teamer has taken things up a notch in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 16.5 points and 9.0 assists through two games.

Given his uptick in playmaking, we can look at Tristen Newton Over 20.5 Points + Assists at -104 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Newton has totaled at least 21 combined points and assists in four consecutive games -- and in 20 of 36 overall.

The 6'5" senior faces a tough task lighting it up against San Diego State's stout defense. The Aztecs rank ninth in adjusted defense and have given up just 65 and 57 points in their first two tournament games.

That said, Newton's up to the task. In 11 games against top-25 defenses this season, Newton has averaged 17.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. He notched at least 21 combined points and assists in six of those games, finishing two shy in another three.

Though San Diego State will be the second-best defense he's faced this season, he didn't have any issues with them in last year's National Championship. Newton had his best game of the tournament against the Aztecs' then-fourth-ranked defense, finishing with 19 points and 4 assists.

I'm expecting more of the same this time around. With a team-high 26.4% usage rate, look for Tristen Newton to wreak havoc on San Diego State's defense and go over this prop.

(4) Alabama vs. (1) North Carolina, 9:39 p.m. ET

Armando Bacot Over 15.5 Points (-125)

North Carolina big man Armando Bacot has been lighting up the scoreboard this postseason. Between three games in the ACC Tournament and two in the Big Dance, Bacot is averaging 17.8 points per game via a 25.2% usage rate. In the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, UNC's all-time leading rebounder has totaled 20 and 18 points, attempting 23 total field goal attempts.

Against a suspect Alabama defense, consider Armando Bacot Over 15.5 points at -125 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bacot had a modest scoring output during the regular season, but the fifth-year senior showed up against top competition. The Tar Heels have played eight games against top-25 KenPom teams. In those, Bacot averaged 16.8 points, 10.3 field goal attempts, and 7.5 free throw attempts per game -- up from the 14.4 points, 9.5 field goal attempts, and 5.1 free throw attempts he averaged for the year.

While 'Bama slots in at 14th overall on KenPom, they're just 101st in adjusted defense. They've allowed 38% of opponents field goals to come at the rim (highest among the 16 remaining teams) and gave up a 59.8% at-rim field goal percentage (third highest).

The Crimson Tide haven't faced a big man as capable as Bacot in the tournament yet, but they struggled against top bigs during the regular season. They gave up: 15 and 23 to Mississippi State's Tolu Smith; 24 and 25 to Auburn's Johni Broome; 19 to Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner; and 35 to Purdue's Zach Edey.

Alabama simply struggles to defend the interior. That's led to them allowing 33.6 points in the paint per game (15th-highest among high-majors), but also a 40.2% free throw attempt rate (fourth highest).

It helps that this game has by far the Sweet 16's highest over/under (173.5) and the shortest odds to be Thursday's highest scoring game (-340).

Bacot should feast inside and could flirt with double-digit free throw attempts against a soft Crimson Tide interior. Consider the over on his points prop, and keep an eye on his alternate markets, too. Armando Bacot Over 17.5 (+132) is certainly appealing given the high total.

(3) Illinois vs. (2) Iowa State, 10:09 p.m. ET

Marcus Domask Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-102)

After compiling a 12-point, 11-rebound, 10-assist triple double in Illinois' First Round win over Morehead State, senior Marcus Domask turned on the scoring in the Second Round, totaling 22 points while still tacking on 7 assists.

With the ability to rack up buckets and dimes, I can get behind Marcus Domask Over 20.5 Points + Assists at -102 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a line Domask has hit in four straight games dating back to the Big Ten tournament semifinals. Though Domask didn't pile on the counting stats initially, the transfer has taken a leap over the second half of the year. Since January 1st, Domask has averaged 18.3 points and 4.6 assists per game, registering a 24.8% usage rate.

In the last 24 games, Domask racked up at least 21 combined points and assists 15 times.

He'll face his toughest test of the season against Iowa State. The Cyclones have the nation's top adjusted defense and rank second in forced turnover rate, after all.

However, Iowa State's aggressive style could actually benefit a playmaker of Domask's caliber. Iowa State gives up a 45% three-point attempt rate (third highest among high-majors) and 58.5% opponent assist rate (sixth highest).

With Illinois leading the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and ranking 31st in effective field goal percentage, Domask should have ample opportunities to carve up an Iowa State team that's just 5-3 against top-15 defenses.

The Cyclones haven't seen an offense like Illinois' yet, and they have a good chance to win outright. With how well Domask has played of late, I'm happy backing him at this number and have some interest diving into some of his alternate assist and point props, too.

In particular, Marcus Domask To Record 6+ Assists (+186) has my eye considering Iowa State's aggressive defense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.