4 FanDuel NFL Values to Target in Week 13

8mo

Finding value is a key part of daily fantasy football on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos

FanDuel Salary: ($7,400)

I've been skeptical of the Russell Wilson renaissance this season, but there's something to be said about his efficiency.

Through 11 games, Wilson ranks fourth in completion rate (68.3%) and fifth in passing touchdowns (20) among active quarterbacks. He's put up a respectable 17.9 FanDuel points per game and posted 16.8 last week on the highly touted Cleveland Browns defense.

On top of his passing, Russ has been scampering around like it's 2014. He's racked up 30-plus rushing yards in five of his last seven games. While he just scored his first rushing touchdown of the year, he's averaged more than one red zone rush attempt per game for the campaign.

I still don't know how much Russ is helping Denver win football games -- he's below Gardner Minshew and just ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo in Net Expected Points (NEP) per play (numberFire's Expected Points Added model) -- but we don't care about that for fantasy.

What we do care about is opportunity. And, boy, does Wilson have a good opportunity to outperform his $7,400 salary this week.

The Denver Broncos visit the Houston Texans this week in a game that has the second-highest total (47.5) of the week. With that, Denver has a healthy 22.0-point implied team total.

Houston's secondary has bled production to the quarterback position. The Texans have allowed the third-highest completion percentage (68.9%) and the fifth-most passing yards per attempt (7.3). That holds up with some of the advanced numbers we care more about. They've let up the 10th-most adjusted fantasy points per dropback, the seventh-highest passing success rate, and the ninth-highest Passing NEP per dropback.

numberFire projects Russell Wilson for 17.8 FanDuel points this week, sixth among quarterbacks. Compare that to his $7,400 salary, which is ninth at the position.

The matchup is there for Denver to put up points this week. Russ' stellar efficiency and low salary can take advantage and provide strong value for DFS lineups.

Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts

FanDuel Salary: ($5,600)

Zack Moss will be the most rostered player on FanDuel this weekend.

And it won't even be close.

Moss finds himself back operating as the Indianapolis Colts' RB1 this week, yet his salary is still reflecting his backup role. In his final game without Jonathan Taylor, Moss was salaried at $7,300.

From Weeks 2 through 5 (when he was the clear No. 1 back), Moss averaged 19.9 FanDuel points per game. He played 83% of snaps and saw a staggering 27.3 adjusted opportunities per game over that stretch. That's top-tier utilization.

The matchup this week isn't ideal on paper. The Tennessee Titans have allowed the seventh-fewest Rushing NEP per carry and the second-lowest rushing success rate to opposing running backs.

That did not matter the last time Moss faced them, and I don't think it will matter this week. He turned 23 carries into 165 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Tennessee in Week 5. That led to a season-best 32.5 FanDuel points.

On top of that, the Titans have allowed the fifth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to RBs. Moss saw just two targets against them in Week 5 but got a respectable 8.3% target share in his four weeks as the starter.

He's likely not hitting 30 points again this week, but he doesn't have to. Moss gives you so much lineup flexibility this week and is far and away the best point-per-dollar value on the board, regardless of position.

The only caveat is how much Moss will be rostered. If you're looking to go against the grain, I like Jeff Wilson. He's definitely less enticing if De'Von Achane plays, but there's so much to like about the Miami Dolphins' matchup.

The Washington Commanders have allowed the sixth-most adjusted rushing FanDuel points per carry and the third-most per target to opposing running backs. They're numberFire's worst schedule-adjusted defense and have let up the third-most raw FanDuel points to running backs over the last four weeks.

Wilson played just 33% of snaps last week, but he logged 17 adjusted opportunities in their blowout win. The 'Fins are 9.5-point favorites with a slate-best 29.5-point implied team total. Even if Achane is active, I like Wilson given the potential garbage time upside and low salary.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders

FanDuel Salary: ($6,200)

Curtis Samuel is coming off a monster performance and has an uber-intriguing matchup against the Dolphins this week. While his salary has ticked back up into the low $6,000 range, that's still low enough to consider him a value given his upside.

Samuel popped off for 14.5 FanDuel points last week despite playing just 56% of snaps. That was largely thanks to a monster 36% target per route run (TPRR) rate, per FantasyLife. For comparison's sake, Tyreek Hill has a 36% TPRR for the entire season.

I'm not expecting double-digit targets again this week, but it's not out of the question. The Commanders lead the league in pass attempts per game (40.5) and have the third-highest pass rate over expectation.

That makes Samuel's 15.2% target share much more palatable, especially against this Dolphins team. For the season, the 'Fins have allowed the 12th-most adjusted fantasy points per target and the third-highest catch rate to opposing receivers.

Although their secondary has improved with Jalen Ramsey back, Miami is still vulnerable on the inside. Since Ramsey's return, primary slot defender Kader Kohou has let up 15 receptions on 18 targets for 104 and a pair of scores.

The matchup is there for Samuel to thrive. So is the game script.

As if Washington didn't throw enough, they should face another negative game script given their status as 9.5-point 'dogs. With this game showing a slate-leading 49.5-point total, there should be plenty of offense to go around.

Samuel is a nice value in what should be a popular game to stack this week.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Salary: ($4,900)

Fantasy football -- and especially DFS -- is a game of opportunity. "Volume is king," as they say.

Somebody crown Juwan Johnson, because he's about to see a whole lot of action this week.

The New Orleans Saints will definitely be without Michael Thomas, while Rashid Shaheed logged two straight DNPs to open the week after exiting Week 11 early. Chris Olave exited last week with a concussion. Although he's practiced on a limited basis, concussions are tricky, so he may be out, too.

If Olave is out, Johnson could be the clear No. 1 pass-catcher in the Saints' offense. But even if Olave plays, there's more than enough work to go around for Johnson to be a value in DFS.

Johnson's role has been steadily increasing since he returned from injury. Last week, Johnson set season-high clips in route participation (85%) and target share (19%). He's now played at least 70% of snaps three weeks in a row.

The Saints have averaged the second-most pass attempts per game (38.2) and have run the second-most plays per game (68), so there should be plenty of opportunity for Johnson to rack up numbers against a Detroit Lions defense that's given up a league-worst 29 points per game over the last six weeks.

With a 7.6-point projection, Johnson is numberFire's top point-per-dollar value among tight ends this week. He's worth a look as a salary saver.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.