3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 6/28/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 6/28/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Zach Eflin Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+106)

Riding the hot hand can often lead to success in strikeouts prop. Zach Eflin of the Tampa Bay Rays fits this mold as he's averaging only 4.5 strikeouts per start on the season -- right in line with his prop for Friday. However, Eflin has upped the ante lately by averaging 6.5 Ks over his last two outings.

Considering his recent success, this makes the +106 over line very enticing. But is the matchup there for Eflin to keep flourishing?

He will face off with the Washington Nationals, who have the ninth-highest strikeout percentage (K%) in MLB. They've also racked up double-digit Ks in two of their last three contests.

Eflin has four pitches with usage rates surpassing 10.0%: a sinker (32.8%), cutter (26.7%), curveball (18.0%), and sweeper (10.9%). His curveball carries the most notable K% at 27.7%. This pitch will likely give Eflin the best chance of surpassing 4.5 strikeouts, and the Nationals have the ninth-fewest runs above average when facing curveballs.

Tampa Bay's starter has been rolling in the K department, and Washington struggles against his best strikeout pitch. The evidence points to the over for Eflin.

Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

After making only eight starts last season, it's been a long wait for Max Scherzer to make his season debut. The 17-year vet has dealt with multiple injuries this season, including back surgery in December and thumb soreness.

Scherzer finally made his first start on June 23rd and looked sharp with one hit allowed through five innings. However, his workload was very limited at only 57 pitches. We should expect another pitch count for Friday's matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

With the 39-year-old hurler still looking to get his feet under him, the O's aren't exactly the best matchup. Baltimore has been a pitcher's nightmare, averaging 8.3 runs per game over their last 10 games. This fits right in line with the Orioles' season-long stats, which includes leading MLB in runs scored while carrying the fourth-highest team batting average.

Striking out Baltimore hasn't been a cakewalk, either, for they are tied for the 11th-lowest K%. Totaling only seven strikeouts over their previous two contests has only helped lower this mark even more.

Taking Scherzer to go under 4.5 strikeouts can mostly be chalked up to making only his second start of the season with limited pitches. Facing perhaps the best batting order in baseball only makes a brief start even more likely.

Scherzer has finished in at least the top 20% of K% for nine consecutive seasons. His slider, changeup, curveball, and cutter have all typically touted impressive strikeout rates. Baltimore is teeing off against nearly every pitch, sitting in the top three for the most runs above average against changeups, curveballs, and cutters while also being in the top half versus sliders.

We will see if Scherzer is remotely close to being his usual self in a tough matchup against the Orioles. Give me the under for his K total with a pitch count likely ahead.

Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-134)

The New York Yankees will face a southpaw in their divisional matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays. New York's K% doesn't change much when facing left-handed, going from 21.1% to 20.9%. Each mark is good for the 11th-lowest mark in the league.

Let's take some time to focus on Yusei Kikuchi. Is he bound for over or under 5.5 strikeouts?

Kikuchi is at about 5.4 Ks each start this season and is totaling 5.0 strikeouts per start over five starts in June. This is all in line with his prop set at 5.5.

His changeup holds an impressive K% (38.6%), and the Yankees total the sixth-fewest runs above average against this pitch. However, Kikuchi's changeup touts his lowest usage rate at 10.2%, and it dipped to 5.1% in his most recent start.

If he's not throwing changeups, Kikuchi will likely pepper New York with fastballs and sliders -- and the Yanks are among the top 10 in runs above average when facing each pitch.

We cannot overlook Kikuchi being in the bottom 16% in hard-hit percentage while New York boasts the third-highest slugging percentage (SLG) and isolated power (ISO). We just saw the Blue Jays' starter allow four home runs on June 17th. The Yankees' slugging could point to a shortened start.

Pair New York's power hitting with their ability to hit fastballs and sliders and this is not looking favorable for Kikuchi.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.