MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 5/31/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 5/31/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)

Aaron Civale is posting some of his best strikeout numbers thus far. His career-high was a 24.1% strikeout percentage (K%), which finished in the 60th percentile. In Civale's other four seasons, he was among the bottom half of the league in K%. He's currently carrying a 23.4 K% (57th percentile).

His chase rate has been consistently impressive throughout his career as Civale has been among the top half of the category for five consecutive seasons. The right-handed hurler is on pace to finish with a chase percentage of above 30.0% for the third straight campaign. Making batters chase could mean success against the Baltimore Orioles, who have eighth-highest chase rate in MLB.

The O's don't really have a K% that stands out for better or worse (tied for 17th-highest), but they can be susceptible at times. They've shown it over the last four games, reaching at least 13 strikeouts in two of the contests.

Civale's most-used pitch is his cutter (30.2%), but Baltimore has the most runs above average versus the pitch. It would be wise for the Tampa Bay Rays' starter to deal the pitch less than usual. Fortunately, his usage has mirrored this strategy in 2024, for his cutter was at 35.0% and 37.2% usage rates over the last two seasons. His sinker has been used more often, going from a 18.5% usage rate to 20.1% this season. This could be Civale's route for Ks as the Orioles have the fourth-fewest runs above average when facing the pitch.

We should also take a moment to look at Civale's recent strikeout production. He's reached five Ks in 3 of his last 4 games and in 7 of 11 starts this season. I like his chances of reaching the number once again. FanDuel Research's projections are forecasting 5.24 Ks for Civale.

Ronel Blanco Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-144)

Some controversy has surrounded Ronel Blanco as he was ejected from his start on May 14th and suspended 10 games due to a sticky substance on his glove. First-base umpire Erich Bacchus stated, "It was the stickiest stuff I've felt on a glove since we've been doing this for a few years now."

Blanco made his return from suspension on May 26th, pitching for seven innings while recording six strikeouts. This has been the first season where we've seen Blanco in a full-time starting role, and he's flourished with a 1.99 ERA and 4.09 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Blanco even pitched the only no-hitter of the season on April 1st.

The Houston Astros are battling the Minnesota Twins on Friday. This is an excellent opportunity for Blanco to turn in another good strikeout performance as the Twins have the 14th-highest K%. Additionally, Minnesota is tied for the 10th-highest swinging-strike percentage. This plays right into Blanco's strength as he ranks in the 72nd percentile of whiff rate.

The 30-year-old righty has a pretty even split between his fastball (34.8%), slider (30.9%), and changeup (29.5%). However, his slider usage has spiked over the last three starts at 40.2%, 37.0%, and 41.3%. The Twins are among the bottom half in runs above average versus this pitch, and opponents have a weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) of only .196 against Blanco's slider.

Perhaps his biggest strength has been regularly providing Houston with deep starts. In fact, he's completed six innings in six of nine appearances. When Blanco has pitched for six innings, he's reached six Ks in four of six games.

The Twins tend to lean on extra-base hits with the fourth-highest isolated power (ISO) and eighth-highest hard-hit percentage. Blanco is in the 69th percentile of hard-hit percentage while giving up only a .279 slugging percentage (SLG). The Astros' starter should be able to avoid extra-base hits, leading to another deep start. Blanco turning in a quality outing means the over for his 5.5 strikeout total.

Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

My favorite value of the day for strikeout props lays in the New York Yankees against the San Francisco Giants. FanDuel Research's projections have Marcus Stroman strikeout total at 5.48, yet his total sits at only 4.5. The odds for the over (+110) only makes this pick even more intriguing.

Stroman has eclipsed 4.5 Ks in back-to-back starts and in three of his last four outings. May has been an excellent month for Stroman, for he's given up no more than one run in four of five starts. He's been red-hot over his last three starts, completing six innings of work in each appearance while giving up only one run over the three outings.

The Giants come off back-to-back games with only one run. Stroman regularly gets ground balls (86th percentile) and limits hard contact (64th percentile in hard-hit percentage). San Francisco isn't a concern in either category as they carry meh numbers, holding the 19th-highest ground ball percentage while being tied for the 14th-highest hard-hit percentage.

Another deep start for Stroman seems within reach -- especially when you look at his usage. The Yanks' starter mostly deals sinkers (39.0%) with several others pitches mixed in: a slider (17.2%), cutter (17.1%), slurve (12.8%), and splitter (10.5%). The Giants have the second-fewest runs above average when facing sinkers.

Stroman is pretty reliable to reach five strikeouts when he completes six innings, which includes his last two starts. Pairing over 4.5 strikeouts with Stroman to go over 17.5 outs recorded (-140) could yield success.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.