3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/9/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/9/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Pitching was the Cincinnati Reds' big weakness last season as they finished with the sixth-worst skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Frankie Montas was signed in the offseason to a 1-year, $16 million deal. It was a risky move after Montas missed the entire 2023 season due to a shoulder injury.

So far, Montas has been a revelation. He has posted a 0.77 ERA and 1.029 WHIP while totaling nine strikeouts. Cincinnati's top starter has certainly played a major part in the Reds carrying the 14th-best mark in SIERA (3.91).

Tuesday provides a good opportunity to take advantage of Montas' early success by targeting over 5.5 strikeouts. If we look at his 2022 stats, reaching six Ks was a pretty regular occurrence. In fact, Montas reached the mark in 13 of 27 starts. The nine-year vet has yet to reach the six-strikeout mark this season, but the Milwaukee Brewers look like the ideal matchup.

Montas has boasted exceptional chase rates throughout his career. He was in the 90th and 86th percentiles in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and the Redlegs' starter is currently in the 71st percentile of the category. His strikeout percentage (K%) is down so far as he sits in the bottom 37%. However, it feels like only a matter of time before this rises with Montas ranking at least in the 53rd percentile in K% from 2019 to 2022.

The Brewers are totaling the 10th-most strikeouts per game and have the 14th-worst K% at 23.2%. After Milwaukee struck out 11 times in back-to-back games, Montas is bound to feast tonight.

George Kirby Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Despite averaging 5.0 strikeouts following two starts, George Kirby's K total is set at only 4.5 for tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. This could be a tough matchup for the Seattle Mariners' third-year starter, making the under an enticing pick.

The Blue Jays are simply a tough team to strikeout. Toronto's batting order is averaging only 7.82 Ks per game (eighth-best) and carries the ninth-best K%. We can even look at some of the more advanced stats for plate discipline, and once again, it checks out in the Jays' favor.

In swinging-strike percentage, Toronto is tied for the third-best mark (9.0%). Additionally, they have another impressive standing in percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone (sixth-best).

Kirby was in the bottom 43% in K% and whiff rate last season. One of his strongest categories was chase percentage (88th percentile). With Toronto rarely chasing pitches out of the strike zone, Kirby's strikeout total could underwhelm. This is nothing new as the Blue Jays also carried the seventh-best mark avoiding punchies last season.

Cole Ragans Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

The Kansas City Royals' trade for Cole Ragans has worked out seamlessly. Following a strong second half of the 2023 season, Ragans has continued to roll with a 3.09 SIERA and 0.892 WHIP to start his 2024 campaign.

After finishing in the 83rd percentile in whiff rate and 85th percentile in K% last year, Ragans' luster in the strikeout category has not faded. He has 16 Ks in two starts and is currently in the 86th percentile in K% and 90th percentile for whiff rate.

Ragans going over 5.5 strikeouts is sitting at +100 for his clash with the Houston Astros. Considering his production in Kansas City, I can't pass on this line.

Houston is averaging only 6.91 strikeouts this season (second-best), but this number is up at 9.0 Ks per contest over the last two. Striking out the Astros will be a tall task for Ragans, for they carry the third-best K% thus far.

The recent spike in Houston's strikeouts provides more comfort for this pick, though. Plus, Ragans has logged 12 Ks over his previous two meetings against the 'Stros.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.