3 Quarterbacks to Draft in Fantasy Football Based on Their Team's Betting Win Total

Even if "QB winz" aren't a fantasy stat, real-life success does translate to fake football.

Passing touchdowns do a lot of legwork in driving fantasy quarterback scoring. The more touchdowns you throw, the more likely your team is to win.

Pretty simple, right?

Thus, it should make sense that we'd want to consider a team's NFL win total betting odds when perusing the quarterback landscape. Not many guys are going to move the needle in fantasy when their team is 4-13.

Obviously, plenty of other factors -- such as rushing production -- come into play, and a team's poor defense can drag down its win total. But who are some quarterbacks who may be undervalued in fantasy based on the strength of their team?

Here are three I think are worth targeting.

Undervalued Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

As things stand, six teams have a win total in the double digits at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Four of them have quarterbacks who rank among the top six at the position in FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data.

One of the exceptions is Jared Goff, who is QB10 but doesn't run a ton. That prevents him from being a screaming value.

Brock Purdy, though, did start to scamper last year and sits as the QB14. He's worth a sniff as a late-round pick.

Last year, Purdy averaged 21.5 rushing yards per game, up from 9.0 the previous year. He was especially active in the red zone, running 10 times inside the 10-yard line after running just 3 times there in 2023.

Despite the San Francisco 49ers' disappointing season, Purdy was also still efficient passing even with tons of injuries to his skill players. That should bode well for this year, even with Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk coming off a torn ACL.

Purdy has proven to be an efficient passer, and he has added some rushing juice to boot. That gives him a path to a ceiling, making him the exact kind of quarterback I'd want to target if I don't get a quarterback early.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers weren't as run-heavy as expected in their first year under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, instead ranking 12th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). That leaves some untapped upside for Justin Herbert in Year 2.

Herbert played hurt all of last year. He was diagnosed with plantar fascia in his right foot during the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 2. The team also had injuries along the offensive line and to its pass-catchers, meaning it's hard to get a good read on expectations based on what we saw there.

Despite the injuries, Herbert still put up quality fantasy outputs down the stretch. He scored 23-plus FanDuel points in the final three regular season games, thanks in part to increased rushing production. Herbert averaged 27.3 rushing yards per game in that stretch.

Herbert is a great athlete, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman has historically led offenses where the quarterbacks have used their legs. Clearly, the betting markets have high expectations for this offense as their win total is 9.5 despite a tough division. Thus, Herbert seems worth the gamble at QB15.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

A lot of points on Herbert apply to Jordan Love, as well. We should have reason for optimism on a bounce back from injury.

Love has never been a big runner, but he was especially stagnant last year. He averaged just 5.5 rushing yards per game after averaging 14.5 in 2023.

The passing efficiency was still there, though, despite another year with a revolving door at receiver. That issue will still be in place, unless Matthew Golden kills it as a rookie or Jayden Reed develops consistency, but Love has proven he doesn't need a true alpha outside to be efficient.

The passing volume also should tick up with Love healthy. The Green Bay Packers were 30th in PROE last year after ranking 10th in 2023. Volume plus efficiency is one route to viability for a non-rushing quarterback, and Love has that potential.

We've seen Love play well even without ideal circumstances. When you add in how easy it is to explain his decreased fantasy production last year, he's an easy name to click at QB16.

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Which win totals grab your attention for 2025? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting win total odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.