What's Justin Jefferson's Fantasy Football Outlook With JJ McCarthy as the Vikings' QB?

After finishing as WR29 in half-PPR formats while missing seven games in 2023, Justin Jefferson returned to dominating fantasy football by finishing as WR2 in the 2024 season.

As usual, Jefferson should be one of the first names off the board in most fantasy drafts. According to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data for half-PPR leagues, Jefferson is sitting fourth overall and ranks as WR2.

While Jefferson has enjoyed one of the best starts to a career in NFL history, there are some questions surrounding his fantasy value in 2025. Similar to a year ago, the Minnesota Vikings have another QB change ahead with former first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy expected to take over the reins.

Should we still expect the usual production from Jefferson with a first-year starting quarterback?

Justin Jefferson 2024 Season Recap

The 2024 season was a big success for Jefferson as his WR2 finish was his best since finishing as WR1 in 2022. This wasn't the same kind of dominance as his 2022 campaign, though, for Ja'Marr Chase enjoyed a comfortable cushion as WR1 by posting 73.5 fantasy points more than Jefferson.

Last season for Jettas felt similar to his rookie 2020 year. He logged 103 receptions for 1,533 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns compared to 88 catches for 1,400 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in 2020. Of course, these are better numbers across the board, but this comparison has more to do with whom he was splitting targets.

In 2020, Adam Thielen was a major part of the offense with 74 receptions, 925 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns. Jordan Addison put up similar numbers in 2024, logging 63 catches for 875 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Keep in mind T.J. Hockenson played in only 10 games in 2024 compared to posting 960 receiving yards over 15 appearances in 2023. This passing attack definitely isn't a one-man show.

Jefferson is still the top dog of the Vikings offense, though, further proven by Minnesota's star carrying the league's fourth-most targets (153) and second-highest snap share (96.1%) among his position in 2024, per PlayerProfiler. Last season's production suggests Jefferson's WR2 ADP is worthwhile, but this is where McCarthy factors into the equation.

Will Jefferson still be one of the league's best fantasy contributors with a rookie running the offense?

Justin Jefferson 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

McCarthy was viewed as a high-level talent in the 2024 NFL Draft. After being selected 10th overall by Minnesota, he missed the entire 2024 season from a knee injury. With Sam Darnold signing with the Seattle Seahawks, McCarthy is expected to be the starter for the 2025 season.

This situation doesn't feel that different than last season. If anything, Darnold starting felt like a bigger potential blow to Jefferson's fantasy stock. McCarthy could legitimately become a franchise QB and has the same kind of upside as Darnold did when he was a prospect. So, what's the difference? We saw Darnold struggle for virtually his entire career prior to the 2024 season, yet he turned it around in coach Kevin O'Connell's offense. Since O'Connell took over in 2022, the Vikings have finished in the top 12 of yards per play in every season. I have full faith in this offense even with McCarthy likely providing up-and-down play as a rookie.

The biggest concern to Jefferson's stock is likely the potential of the run game improving. Electing to log more rushing attempts with a first-year starter is ideal -- especially when McCarthy comes from a run-heavy Michigan Wolverines offense. In April, O'Connell suggested he wants to run the ball more often. This is in line with Minnesota's offseason moves, signing running back Jordan Mason, center Ryan Kelly, and guard Will Fries. Plus, Minnesota spent the 24th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on guard Donovan Jackson.

There's been a clear investment in the run game, suggesting last season's 30th-ranked rush rate over expectation (-3.8%) and 8th-fewest yards per rushing attempt (4.1) should increase. As mentioned, the receiving game does have other mouths to feed like Addison and Hockenson.

Still, O'Connell's offense will likely remain pass-heavy. The unit had the third-highest pass-play percentage in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. We already saw a drop off in pass-play rate in 2024 (15th-highest), and Jefferson still finished as WR2. I doubt the Vikings' pass-play percentage gets much lower than what we saw a season ago.

Ultimately, Jefferson likely remains the best wide receiver in football. He managed to navigate a challenging 2024 season by providing more impressive fantasy production. This only gives me even more confidence in Jefferson's WR2 ADP ahead of the 2025 season. If anything, he could have a higher ceiling if McCarthy lives up to his potential.

Eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons despite seeing passes from several different quarterbacks, the lone true path for Jefferson to be a total disappointment in fantasy seems to be injury.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.