3 NHL Best Bets for Tuesday 10/29/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Minnesota Wild vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins Moneyline +105

Home sweet home. After a disastrous four-game road trip in which they went 0-3-1, the Pittsburgh Penguins return to the comforts of PPG Paints Arena, taking on a road-weary Minnesota Wild side on Tuesday night. Mired in a five-game losing streak, the betting market has taken a firm stance against the Penguins. However, there’s value in backing the underdog home side to pull off the upset.

Pittsburgh has started the season by playing seven of its first ten games on the road. Naturally, that’s resulted in a deterioration of their metrics, but the Penguins are a different team on home ice. In a limited three-game sample, the Pens are averaging 12.0 high-danger and 23.7 scoring chances at home. Still, their output doesn’t match their robust production. Pittsburgh has been held to just seven goals in those three games with a below-average 7.0% shooting percentage across all strengths, falling to 3.2% at five-on-five. As a result, we’re anticipating a coming-out party for the Penguins as they settle into a modest three-game home stand.

Some of that progression should come against a familiar face. Marc-Andre Fleury is confirmed as the starter for the Wild, but he hasn’t fared well in his former stomping grounds. The veteran netminder has a .805 save percentage across his last two starts in Pittsburgh, yielding eight goals on 41 shots. Further, Minnesota has been outplayed in five of its past six, precipitating a 47.4% expected goals-for rating. Despite those shortcomings, the Wild have gone 4-1-1, making them natural regression candidates over their coming games.

Pittsburgh has an advantage that’s not yet captured in the betting price. On that basis, there’s an edge in backing the home side as plus-money underdogs.

St. Louis Blues vs. Ottawa Senators

Senators Moneyline -152

For years, the Ottawa Senators have drafted and developed some of the most promising young forwards in the NHL. Finally, they are reaping the fruits of their labor. Ottawa is off to a 4-4-0 start to the season, but its offense is starting to come to life. They can wield that advantage against a St. Louis Blues side that has struggled to contain opponents recently.

While they’re one game above .500, the Blues remain a below-average analytics team. Their 48.5% expected goals-for rating puts them in the bottom half of the league, and they have sub-optimal metrics across the board. All of St. Louis’ relative metrics, including Corsi, high-danger, and shots-for ratings, sit below 50.0%. Those concerning metrics have taken a turn for the worse more recently. The Blues have been outplayed in four of their past five, out-chancing their opponents in high-danger chances once over that stretch.

Ottawa can benefit from that uninspired play on Tuesday night. They’ve recorded 17 goals across their previous four contests, with nine coming at five-on-five. Further, they remain 6.8% off their expected goals-for rating, implying the Sens are progression candidates in the short term.

St. Louis is on an unsustainable path; its most recent loss is a sign of things to come. The Senators' advantage is more pronounced than the betting odds imply, and their betting price should continue to creep higher as we approach puck drop.

Anaheim Ducks vs. New York Islanders

Under 5.5 +106

Two teams with an aversion to offense take to the ice in New York on Tuesday night. The perpetually rebuilding Anaheim Ducks head to Long Island for an inter-conference showdown against the New York Islanders. Goals should be few and far between in this one, leaving an edge on the plus-money under.

Anaheim is one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL. The Ducks have eclipsed six high-danger chances just once over their past five games, which predictably correlates with lackluster output. Anaheim has totaled just ten goals across the five-game sample, falling below the total in all but two of those outings. Their saving grace has been their respectable defensive standing, as they’ve held three of those five opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances.

Defensive responsibility is the heart of the Islanders’ systems. New York has given up more than nine high-danger opportunities only once over its previous five contests, limiting opponents to an average of 7.8 chances per game. However, they also don’t prioritize offense. Across the same five-game sample, the Islanders haven’t surpassed ten quality chances, with an identical diminutive average of 7.8 per game.

Both teams play a stifling brand of defensive hockey, which should result in a low-scoring game at UBS Arena. Bettors can take advantage by getting a piece of the under while it’s still listed at plus money.

At plus money, there’s an edge in backing this one to stay below 5.5 goals.

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