3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 12/17/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Los Angeles Kings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

Penguins Moneyline (+116)

The Los Angeles Kings continue their extended road trip with a stop at PPG Arena on Tuesday night. The Pittsburgh Penguins await them, looking to build on their recent successful run. The Kings enter as short road favorites, but we expect the Penguins to contend on home ice.

Pittsburgh is earmarked for progression. The Pens enter Tuesday’s inter-conference tilt with two losses over their last three, but their metrics support that more wins are expected in the short term. Pittsburgh has outplayed its opponents in three straight contests, yielding only one win. That puts them nearly ten points below their expected goals-for rating on the season, implying that the Penguins are due for a boost of good fortune.

That anticipated progression should arrive starting on Tuesday night. The Kings have looked underwhelming in their recent sample. L.A. has been outplayed in five of seven contests but has collected wins in all but one of those contests. They’ve struck an unsustainable balance with their latest efforts, supporting that regression is inevitable.

The Penguins’ improved analytics play gives them a distinct advantage over the road-weary Kings. As a result, we see value in backing Pittsburgh as home underdogs on Tuesday night.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens

Over 6.5 (+110)

Montreal Canadiens goalies have seemingly abandoned their responsibilities between the pipes. While that puts them at a disadvantage against the Buffalo Sabres, it reveals a more substantive edge in backing this Atlantic Division battle to surpass 6.5.

The Habs’ regression was expected. Montreal goalies were operating well above their career norms, ensuring that a correction phase would follow. We’re amid that now with Montreal giving up 19 goals over its last four games. More concerningly, 12 of those tallies came at five-on-five, underscoring the Canadiens’ ineffective play.

With Montreal’s defensive zone coverage imploding, we’re forecasting more goals-against in La Belle Province. The Habs have given up ten or more high-danger chances in four of five, precipitating 12.2 opportunities per game. That coincides with an uptick in Buffalo’s productivity. The Sabres have eclipsed ten high-danger chances in five of six.

This game could quickly turn into a track meet, and with Montreal’s netminders unable to secure the blue paint, this contest could get out of hand. At the current price, we see an edge backing this one to eclipse the total.

Boston Bruins vs. Calgary Flames

Bruins Moneyline (-130)

Arguably, no team has exceeded expectations more so than the Calgary Flames. The now playoff hopefuls have thrown everything they can at their opponents, resulting in a 15-11-5 record on the season. Those efforts may have paid off early but don’t support indefinite success in Cowtown.

Analytically, the Flames aren’t a good team. They sit in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for percentage but have exceeded that threshold with a slightly inflated actual goals-for rating. Moreover, we’ve seen an epic collapse in their analytics over the Flames’ most recent schedule. Calgary has been outplayed in two straight, posting game scores below 38.6% in both outings.

The Boston Bruins are traveling in the opposite direction. Boston has posted resounding metrics in five straight, giving the Bruins a significant edge that isn’t reflected in the betting price. They enter the inter-conference showdown with a -130 moneyline price, equaling a 56.2% implied probability. We give the Bruins a better chance of claiming victory against the Flames.

Calgary’s wins will start to dry up, and we’re betting it begins tonight against the Bs. This is an ideal spot to back the Bruins as short road chalk.

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