3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 12/19/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

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New Jersey Devils vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Devils -1.5 (+116)

After a torrid stretch and a big move up the standings, life has returned to normal for the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Metropolitan Division competitors have lost five in a row, carrying them into Thursday’s tilt versus the New Jersey Devils. Rightfully, the Devils are installed as hefty road favorites, but their presumed dominance is not yet reflected on the puck line. On that basis, we see a decided advantage in backing them to cover -1.5 against the Jackets.

Columbus has abandoned all defensive responsibility of late. The Blue Jackets have given up at least ten high-danger chances in five of six while allowing three of their past four opponents to surpass 25 scoring opportunities. Predictably, that’s had a detrimental impact on their expected goals for rating. Columbus has posted a cumulative 39.9% benchmark across the five-game losing streak.

The Jackets can’t afford those defensive miscues against the Devils. New Jersey is one of the top offensive teams in the league, ranking third in high-danger chances and fifth in scoring chances. That offensive dominance is reflected in their recent sample. The Devils have eclipsed ten quality chances in three of four and surpassed 24 scoring opportunities in each one of those contests.

The Devils are the superior team; we expect their on-ice play to reflect that. New Jersey should have no problem scoring in Columbus, leaving an edge in backing them on the puck line.

St. Louis Blues vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Blues Moneyline (+184)

The St. Louis Blues’ coaching change has yet to yield the results they were hoping for. Still, Jim Montgomery’s squad has improved their analytics standing, which will undoubtedly help them compete against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night. The betting market has taken a firm stance against the Blues, strengthening the implied advantage in backing them on the moneyline.

It took a couple of weeks, but St. Louis’ product is finally starting to reflect Montgomery’s analytics superiority. The Blues have outplayed their opponents in three of five, out-chancing their opponents in high-danger chances in all but one of those contests. Still, they only have two wins over that stretch and an actual goals-for rating of 50.0%, implying they are progression candidates over their coming games.

Conversely, the Bolts have outlasted their metrics and are earmarked for regression. Tampa Bay has just one loss over its past six, but they are starting to lose their analytics footing. The Atlantic Division contenders have been outplayed in two of four but have an actual goals-for rating of 62.2% over that stretch. As expected, that’s elevated their PDO to 1.047 and put the Lightning on the precipice of regression.

Analytically, these teams are trending in opposite directions. The Bolts’ metrics are starting to erode, inevitably leading to more losses. However, the Blues sit on the progression end of the spectrum and should begin to see more wins follow their improved on-ice product. On that basis, we see an edge in backing the Blues.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Nashville Predators

Penguins Moneyline (+126)

If there’s one team that’s underachieved more than the Pittsburgh Penguins this season, it’s the Nashville Predators. Those downtrodden foes collide at the Bridgestone Arena on Thursday in an inter-conference clash.

This was supposed to be the year for the Preds. Nashville’s brass had a busy offseason rebuilding its roster, but those changes have yet to make a material impact. The Preds sit in the bottom half of the league with a sub-optimal 48.7% expected goals-for rating. Still, their actual percentage of 38.5% reveals the truth of their inability to come together on the ice.

Over their recent sample, the Pens’ offense has dramatically improved their production. They’ve gone north of ten high-danger chances in four of six, which has profoundly impacted scoring. The Penguins have tallied 21 goals across that six-game sample, with 16 of those coming at five-on-five. Granted, the bulk of those goals came in a nine-goal effort against the Montreal Canadiens, but that offensive promise is something the Pens have been lacking since the start of the season.

Armed with a 0.979 PDO and an actual goals-for rating seven points below expected, we like the Penguins’ chances of continuing their ascent. Unfortunately, that will come at the Predators' expense tonight.

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