3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/5/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.

That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Picks

Jimmy Butler Over 22.5 Points (-104)

We've reached the dog days of the NBA regular season, otherwise known as Jimmy Butler's cue.

Last season, Butler was dominant post-All-Star break, averaging 25.6 points in this split as opposed to his 21.7 points average before the hiatus. He's shown similarities this year, too. He was scoring 21.4 points before the All-Star break but has since been averaging 25.8 points, albeit through just four games.

While I do believe that Butler seems primed to go on a heater in the latter days of the season, post-All-Star break stats are by no means the most trustworthy metric.

But if we factor in a friendly matchup against the Detroit Pistons as well as Tyler Herro's injury status (out; knee), it's easy to like Butler's scoring potential tonight.

This season, Butler has played in 19 games without Herro. In the split, he has averaged 23.8 points.

Herro is the second-leading scorer (20.8 points) on the Miami Heat and takes the most field goal attempts (18.0 FGA) per game. Butler should, naturally, take on higher-than-normal shot volume with Herro out.

There is a flip side to Herro's absence. With one of Miami's main scoring threats gone, it seems logical that Butler would, in turn, draw a tougher, more laser-focused defensive matchup.

But when we're talking about the Pistons, defensive prowess isn't top of mind. Detroit comes into this one with the third-worst (tied) defensive rating in the league. They also allow teams to score the fourth-most points per game.

Further, the Pistons surrender more free-throw attempts than any other team in the NBA. Butler is one of the best in the biz at getting to the foul line, netting 32.4% of his points from behind the stripe and averaging the fifth-most free-throw makes in the league.

It doesn't hurt that Jimmy Buckets will be playing this one on his home court. He's averaging 23.7 points in Miami in comparison to his 19.9 points on the road.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 Assists (-115)

Tyrese Haliburton has been uncharacteristically quiet in his last two games.

On Friday, his ugly stat line included zero points and three assists off of just 23 minutes (theIndiana Pacers got blown out early on). Sunday's game wasn't that much better, with Hali scoring 12 points and dishing out eight assists.

He has no injury designation, so there's no good reason why his numbers should have been that low. But the aftermath has us getting Haliburton's assist prop at quite the deal.

On the season, Haliburton is averaging 11.3 assists per game. He has eclipsed 10.5 assists in 63.3% of his games.

If we remove the seven games where Haliburton faced a minutes restriction due to injury management -- from early January into February -- he has recorded over 10.5 dimes at a 71.4% clip.

These -115 odds, meanwhile, imply just a 53.5% probability. The over on this prop is scorching with value, and we haven't even mentioned that Indiana will get to go up the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is letting up the eighth-most assists (tied) in the NBA. Both the Pacers and Mavs rank in the top eight of most points allowed per game, so we should see plenty of scoring today, which can translate to high assist production from Haliburton.

The market has the over/under for this contest set at 246.0 points, easily the night's highest game total. When Haliburton has played in games that featured a total of 240.0 or higher, he is averaging 12.5 assists.

FanDuel Research's projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- are bullish on the over, too. They have Haliburton set to dish out 11.5 assists tonight.

Jalen Brunson Under 29.5 Points (-115)

On Sunday, Jalen Brunson had to be helped off the court a mere minute into the game after suffering a knee injury.

New York Knicks fans can exhale, though, as Brunson's concerning injury has since been ruled as a left knee contusion.

But the idea that Brunson can rebound from what looked like a season-jeopardizing impairment and score 30-plus points just 48 hours later seems a bit far-fetched.

Brunson is awesome, and the laundry list of injured New York players has only helped his scoring production. But even still, Brunson has scored under 29.5 points in 5 out of his past 12 games -- not accounting for Sunday's one-minute stint -- since Julius Randle has been out.

New York will take on the Atlanta Hawks, a team that has become famous for letting up a ton of points. However, the market has granted the Knicks just a 108.5-point implied team total in this one, which is actually lower than the team's points per game average this season (113.4).

Add in that Atlanta has managed to surrender the 12th-fewest points to point guards despite letting up the second-most points overall, and Brunson's return to action might not be particularly fruitful.

As of now, Brunson is listed as questionable for tonight. If he is ruled as good to go, I like the under on his points prop.

Our projections anticipate Brunson to score 26.9 points against the Hawks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.