NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/20/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Gary Trent Jr. Over 20.5 Points (+100)

Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl will all be sidelined for the Toronto Raptors tonight.

Since Pascal Siakam was dealt from Toronto in January, the four aforementioned players are averaging a combined 70.2 points off 54.9 field goal attempts per game.

So, who's left for the Raptors?

Well, they've got Gary Trent Jr., arguably the only true scoring threat that remains on this short-staffed team. Let's target him to have a big night.

Trent can make a big splash on the stat sheet when given the opportunity. In six games without Scottie Barnes, he is averaging 22.0 points.

In a pair of games without both Barnes and Barrett, Trent is averaging 23.0 points, and both games were against the Orlando Magic, a team that lets up the fourth-fewest points to guards per 36 minutes.

We've yet to see what Trent's shot volume looks like with Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley out of the lineup, but I have to imagine it will be fairly juicy. Toronto's depth chart is lacking and Trent has already been shooting an average of 19.3 field goal attempts across his last four games.

Trent will go up against the Sacramento Kings in what looks to be a friendly matchup.

The Kings cede the 12th-most points to guards per 36 minutes. They also give up the 11th-most three-point makes (3PM) to shooting guards. Trent shoots the three-ball at a 40.7% clip and scores 59.7% of his points from downtown.

Add in that Toronto plays at the 13th-fastest pace while Sacramento plays at the 12th-fastest pace, and this scoring environment looks awesome.

Trent has scored at least 23 points in three of his last four games. He's scored at least 30 points in two of his last four games. He's in a go-off spot, so I'd consider Gary Trent Jr. To Score 25+ Points at +230.

I'd also take a look at Gary Trent Jr. Top Points Scorer in Raptors-Kings game at +550. It'll be tough to outdo De'Aaron Fox. But since Fox shares scoring duties with Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk, he is not always a shoo-in to have a major scoring night. Given Trent's ultra-intriguing shot volume potential, I at least think these +550 odds are a good deal.

Bobby Portis Over 25.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) will not play tonight, tampering with what could have been a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics.

Although Giannis' absence robs this showdown of some intrigue, it does pave a path for Bobby Portis to shine.

This season, Portis has played in four games without Giannis. In this split, he is averaging a combined 33.1 points and rebounds (PR).

The breakdown of Portis' numbers in this split is as follows: 25 PR, 22 PR, 44 PR, and 41 PR.

In that game where Portis recorded just 22 PR, the Bucks were blown out by the Cleveland Cavaliers, losing by a towering 40 points. Bench players were thrust into the game early and Portis saw just 21 minutes on the floor.

I actually find it encouraging that Portis managed 22 PR despite this major defeat. Boston is favored by 10.5 points this evening, but we can never reasonably anticipate a 40-point routing.

The Celtics may possess the league's second-best defensive rating, but they lack the size and physicality needed to silence Portis. Boston lets up the 10th-most putback points per game -- a rare spot where we can find this team in poor standing.

Even if the Celtics come out on top tonight, I think Portis will still have his way.

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds (-104)

Stephen Curry has exceeded 4.5 rebounds in six of his last eight games, and he's in a good spot to hit the repeat button in tonight's contest against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis gives up more boards to point guards than any other team in the NBA. This includes over their last 30 games and 15 games.

Curry, on the other hand, has secured over 4.5 rebounds in 54.5% of games where he has played at least 30 minutes. These -104 odds imply just a 50.9% probability.

Curry averages 32.8 minutes per game, and the Golden State Warriors cannot afford to lose tonight's game, so a 30-plus minute outing seems much more likely than not.

Guards can typically find rebounding success against teams that shoot and miss a lot of threes. That is the case for Curry at least. He has played in eight games against teams that rank in the top six of three-point attempts (3PA) per game but do not rank in the top six of three-point percentage.

In this split, Curry is averaging 5.8 rebounds and cleared 4.5 boards in all but two games.

Memphis shoots the fifth-most 3PA in the NBA, while their three-point percentage ranks dead last.

FanDuel Research's projections expect 5.1 rebounds from Curry this evening.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.