3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 2/28/24

Annie Nader•@ANader33

5mo

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists (+108)

Darius Garland has dished out over 6.5 dimes in eight straight games, and I think there's reason to believe he could be primed to do so again tonight.

On the season, Garland is averaging 6.2 assists per game while playing 32.2 minutes. He sustained a broken jaw earlier this season, forcing him to see reduced court time in games where injury management was a priority.

But in four games since the All-Star break, Garland has been playing an average of 35 minutes each night. And in 25 games where Garland has played at least 29 minutes, he has recorded more than 6.5 assists in 16 contests (64.0%). The +108 odds, meanwhile, indicate just a 48.1% probability.

Garland and the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Chicago Bulls in what should be an assist-friendly matchup.

For starters, the Bulls surrender the ninth-most assists per game to points guards. They also let up more three-point attempts (3PA) and three-point makes (3PM) than any other team in the Association.

The Cavs, meanwhile, are draining the 11th-most three-pointers this season and rank fourth in 3PM since the start of 2024.

Sharpshooters such as Donovan Mitchell, Sam Merrill, and Max Strus could have a field day from downtown in this one, and I'd expect Garland to be leading the playmaking charge. After all, Cleveland ranks third in percentage of assisted field goal makes over their last 15 games.

Tonight's game will be the second leg of a back-to-back for the Cavs. For what it's worth, Garland has surpassed 6.5 assists in four out of five games in this split.

Max Strus Over 9.5 Points (+104)

A pair of correlated, plus-odd props might be the spot to be in tonight.

Max Strus made headlines last night. After draining four straight three-pointers in the final three minutes of yesterday's game, Strus lifted the Cavs to a 121-119 victory upon nailing a 59-foot buzzer-beater.

Siding with him tonight could be looked at as riding an unsustainable hype train, but the market is actually undervaluing Strus' points prop.

Strus has exceeded 9.5 points in 37 of his 57 games this season. He is hitting the over at this line at a 64.9% clip, but the +104 odds imply just a 49.0% probability.

This alone is quite appealing, but let's factor in that Strus has arguably the best matchup possible on deck for this evening.

Strus is averaging 12.3 points per game, and 58.6% of those points are discovered from behind the arc. As mentioned, the Bulls give up more 3PA and 3PM than any other team in the league.

We should see an already three-point insistent Cavs team let it fly in this matchup, especially since they are coming off a game from just last night. As a starter, Strus should have the green light to get in on the fun.

Add in that Strus is averaging 13.9 points in seven second-leg of back-to-back contests, and it's hard not to like him tonight.

As mentioned, Strus' points prop and Garland's assist prop are correlated. Strus has scored over 9.5 points in 76.5% of games where Garland recorded over 6.5 assists. Further, a whopping 97.1% of Strus' 3PM are assisted.

Aaron Gordon Over 20.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

The Sacramento Kings will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight, and it seems as though Aaron Gordon has a big game on tap.

On the season, Gordon is averaging 20.3 combined points and rebounds (PR).

The Nuggets play at the league's fourth-slowest pace, while the Kings play at the league's 11th-fastest pace.

Gordon has shined in paced-up games, averaging 22.7 PR when going up against teams that rank in the top 12 of pace. Further, he has eclipsed 20.5 PR in 16 out of 25 games (64.0%) in this split.

This season, the Kings have been surrendering the third-most points per game to power forwards. Over their last 15 games, they've let up the 11th-most rebounds to this position, as well as the fifth-most rebounds over their last seven games.

Gordon nets the lion's share of his points -- 69.3% -- in the paint. Luckily for him, Sacramento allows opposing teams to score the fifth-most paint points.

A remaining chunk of Gordon's points (17.0%) are scored at the foul line, and the Kings are letting teams shoot the ninth-most free-throw attempts per game.

Nikola Jokic has been on a heater as of late, recording three straight triple-doubles since returning from the All-Star break. I'd expect Jokic to cool off at some point, and this matchup serves as a perfect opportunity for Gordon to step up.

FanDuel Research's projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- anticipate Gordon to record 23.7 PR in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.