3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/23/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/23/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 25.5 Pts + Reb (-118)

Following yesterday's thrilling night of playoff basketball, we'll run things back tonight, starting with a matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns.

The T-Wolves took Game 1 of this series with a resounding 120-95 victory. Karl-Anthony Towns returned to Minny's lineup at the tail end of the regular season after missing over a month due to injury, and he's the main player we should focus on in today's props market.

On the season, Towns is averaging 30.8 combined points and rebounds (PR) per game. He eclipsed 25.5 PR in 67.7% of his games this season.

And in games where Towns played at least 30 minutes, he surpassed 25.5 PR at a 75.0% rate.

These -118 odds imply only a 54.1% probability, so I have no doubts that we are getting a great deal at this line.

KAT's minutes could be grounds for concern. After all, this will be just his fourth game back since returning from an extended injury. However, I think the market over-accounted for the fact that he's been averaging just 28 minutes since his return.

In Game 1, he recorded 26 PR all while playing just 27 minutes. Phoenix's poor play forced him out of the game early, but tonight's 3.0-point spread shows little risk for back-to-back blowouts.

Since KAT is not under any minutes restriction, and a more competitive game should await, I'm quite bullish on the over.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Towns to log 32.28 minutes in this one. Based on his 0.92 PR per minute average, this would theoretically result in him recording 29.7 PR.

Add in that Phoenix let up the 11th-most points to power forwards and the 11th-most three-point makes (3PM) per game during the regular season, and it's easy to envision Towns having success in this matchup.

Our projections have him slated for 26.9 PR.

Damian Lillard To Score 30+ Points (-105)

Since Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) remains out, Damian Lillard will be forced to carry the Milwaukee Bucks in tonight's contest against the Indiana Pacers.

In Milwaukee's Game 1 victory, Lillard scored 35 points off of 24 field goal attempts. His shot volume sans Giannis is insane and particularly enticing when considering the Pacers are a fast and defense-averse opponent.

On the season, Lillard has played in nine games without Giannis. In this split, he is averaging 30.4 points per game.

But if we only include the contests where Lillard played more than 30 minutes, he is averaging 34.4 points and scored at least 30 points in six out of seven games.

The breakdown of Lillard's points each game in this split are as follows: 37, 41, 31, 32, 36, 29, and 35 points. While this seven-game sample isn't totally voluminous, it's telling that Dame has scored a minimum of 29 points in this split.

This season, Indiana surrendered the fourth-most points per game to guards. They also gave up the second-most free-throw attempts (FTA) to guards, while Lillard averages the seventh-most FTA per game in the NBA.

The Pacers finished the regular season playing at the league's second-fastest pace while also owning the seventh-worst defense. Game 1 of this series was the fastest-paced game so far in these playoffs. The high shot volume will be there, and we just need Dame to shoot the ball at a solid clip.

I'd also consider backing Damian Lillard To Score 35+ Points at +240. We're asking a lot from him, but these +240 odds suggest a 29.4% probability even though we've seen Dame reach this number in four out of seven 30-plus-minute games without Giannis.

Ivica Zubac To Record A Double-Double (-105)

Kawhi Leonard (knee; questionable) missed Game 1 of the Los Angeles Clippers-Dallas Mavericks series, and his status for tonight's contest is up in the air.

While Leonard's playing status will undoubtedly affect how we approach the player props market for LAC, I'd consider backing Ivica Zubac to record a double-double, regardless.

Zubac averaged 11.7 points and 9.2 rebounds during the regular season. He scored 20 points and corralled 15 rebounds in Game 1 of this series, and the Clippers should continue to prioritize him in a matchup against a sizable team.

Beyond Kyrie Irving, every starter on Dallas stands 6'6 or taller. Dereck Lively and Maxi Kleber come off the bench and occupy the paint, but Zubac is bigger and more productive than whichever benchwarmers Dallas may throw at him.

In LAC's Game 1 victory, Zubac boasted a team-high positive 15 plus/minus. Dallas, meanwhile, ended the regular season having given up the sixth-most rebounds and the seventh-most putback points per game.

Zubac should eat up those putback opportunities and continue to be fed the ball against a Mavs team that surrendered the 11th-most points in the paint this season.

If Leonard is ruled out, this prop becomes even more enticing. Zubac recorded a double-double in 9 out of 10 Leonard-less games (where he played at least 18 minutes) this season.

James Harden does an excellent job feeding Zubac the ball, so I'd also consider Harden Over 8.5 Assists at -122 should Leonard be ruled out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.