NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 4/4/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Duncan Robinson Over 13.5 Pts + Ast (-106)

Duncan Robinson is off the heels of a few low-production games. But as a result, the market may have set his combined points and assists (PA) prop too low.

On the season, Robinson is averaging 16.2 PA per game.

He's eclipsed 13.5 PA in 67.7% of his games while these -106 odds suggest just a 51.5% probability. Robinson's role for the Miami Heat has not changed, so we're getting a great deal on the over.

The Heat will take on the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. The Sixers allow the 10th-most points and the 8th-most assists per game to guards.

They also let up the 9th-most three-point attempts to this position, so Robinson could see some great looks from downtown. He nets 64.3% of his points from behind the arc and shoots threes at a 40.1% clip.

With an awesome three-point shooter going up against a poor three-point defense, reaching 13.5 PA seems quite feasible. Robinson has played three games against Philadelphia this season. He drained five threes in two of those contests.

Tyler Herro remains sidelined for Miami. In 31 games without Herro this season, Robinson is averaging 18.4 PA. I think this is a great spot to target an undervalued player.

Russell Westbrook Over 19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

The Los Angeles Clippers' late-season skid has been made worse with Kawhi Leonard (knee) out, but at least Russell Westbrook is back in action.

Westbrook is averaging 20.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) this season. I don't think he'll have much trouble reaching that average with LAC's main piece out.

This season, Westbrook has played in six games without Leonard. In this split, he is averaging 26.8 PRA and exceeded 19.5 PRA in every single game. In fact, he recorded a minimum of 22 PRA without Leonard despite playing just 21 minutes in that 22 PRA contest.

The Clippers will take on the Denver Nuggets -- not the easiest matchup in town, but Westbrook can still find success.

Denver's defense is ranked 10th, which is probably a bit lower than you'd expect for the defending champs. Further, they don't force opposing guards to put up low numbers. The Nuggets rank 17th in points allowed to guards, 18th in rebounds allowed to guards, and 16th in assists allowed to guards each game.

In three games against the Nuggets this year, Westbrook is averaging 20.9 PRA. He put up these numbers even with Kawhi Leonard starting for Los Angeles.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Westbrook to net 22.3 PRA this evening. If the alt markets open up later this afternoon, I'd consider laddering Westbrook's PRA prop.

Dillon Brooks Over 1.5 Made Threes (+100)

The Golden State Warriors will visit the Houston Rockets tonight. This game will reunite Dillon Brooks with his uninterested rival team, the Warriors.

Brooks has been loud in his history against Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Golden State. I'd expect him to at least try to be loud this evening, especially because the Warriors stand in the way of the Rockets claiming the final play-in spot in the West.

Whether Brooks finds success in his efforts is another thing, but I like the deal we are getting on his made-threes prop.

Brooks has made over 1.5 threes in 53.1% of his games this season. In contests where he has played more than 25 minutes, he is clearing this prop at a 61.5% rate. Brooks averages 30.8 minutes per game, so whichever way you spin it, there is value in these even-money odds.

The Warriors shoot a ton of threes and in turn, give up a lot of threes. Going into the night, they surrender the fifth-most three-point attempts and the 10th-most three-point makes (3PM) per game.

Brooks has played in 27 games against teams that rank in the top 10 of most 3PM allowed per game. In this split, he is averaging 2.2 3PM and drained at least two threes in 66.7% of contests.

This game should end up as one of the faster-paced matchups on today's slate. The Warriors go at the 11th-fastest tempo while the Rockets have amped it up as of late, playing at the 5th-fastest pace across their last 10 games.

Brooks seems primed to let his fair share of three-point attempts fly, so I'll side with the even-money that he can nail at least two.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.