3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 2/15/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Vince Williams Jr. Over 12.5 Points (-118)

The Memphis Grizzlies have been dealt blow after blow this season. Their long-winded injury report has been particularly gruesome to the guards on this team, with Desmond Bane (ankle) serving as the most recent victim.

Bane got hurt in early January and hasn't played since. Enter Vince Williams Jr., a second-year guard who has been making use of his time in the starting lineup.

He has played in 15 games since Bane got hurt. In that span, Williams is averaging 15.4 points per game and has exceeded 12.5 points in 11 of those contests.

Further, he has scored at least 12.0 points in 13 of those games and has yet to record under double-digit points in this split. He is consistently hitting the over on -- and hovering near -- this 12.5-point line, but there's more to the story here.

In the four games -- since Bane's injury -- wherein Williams failed to exceed 12.5 points, he went up against teams that rank in the top seven of the NBA's defensive rating.

Unless he is facing a team that serves as one of the best defenses in basketball, Williams has cleared 12.5 points in each Bane-less contest. I see no reason not to target him in tonight's matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, a squad that currently ranks 17th in defensive rating.

The Bucks surrender the eighth-most points per game and the fifth-most points per game to shooting guards.

Williams nets 48.8% of his points from behind the arc. Milwaukee, meanwhile, has been letting opposing guards shoot the three-ball at the league's fifth-best clip over their last 15 games.

The Bucks are also allowing the 10th-most paint points per game, which is the area where Williams accumulates 29.1% of his points. I'm quite encouraged by this matchup as well as Williams' recent play, so I am happy to side with the over at this line. Our projections, which are powered by numberFire -- have Williams scoring 13.2 points.

Collin Sexton Over 18.5 Points (-122)

I don't think the market is keeping a close enough eye on Collin Sexton.

This past December, Sexton joined the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz, and he hasn't looked back since.

He is averaging 21.1 points per night as a starter and has eclipsed 18.5 points in 25 of his 32 games started. This means Sexton is hitting the over at this line (as a starter) at a 78.1% clip, which is significantly higher than the implied 54.9% probability with this prop via the -122 odds.

It looks like the over on Sexton's points prop is scorching with value, and he has a good matchup on deck, too.

The Jazz will host the Golden State Warriors for a rematch of this past Monday's game. Sexton scored 22 points in that Monday contest, and I think this friendly-yet-competitive matchup with Golden State will have him in that range once again.

The Warriors surrender the eighth-most three-point attempts (3PA) in the Association. That is good news for Sexton, who scores 26.7% of his points from behind the arc.

Sexton nets a combined 68.8% of his points from either the foul line or the paint. Golden State is below-average in these regards, letting up the sixth-most free-throw attempts and 13th-most paint points each game.

Add in a 2.0-point spread and a juicy 239.5 over/under, and this game environment seems like it could be perfect for Sexton. In games where Sexton was deployed as a starter, there have been a mere two contests wherein the game was decided by less than 14 points and Sexton failed to score over 18.5 points.

Scoot Henderson Over 17.5 Pts + Ast (-102)

Rookie guard Scoot Henderson hasn't made the smoothest transition to the NBA, but as of late, he is really finding his groove with the Portland Trail Blazers.

Henderson is averaging exactly 17.5 combined points and assists (PA) per game this season.

But when it comes to rookies, especially Henderson, it's usually apt to look at more recent stats. He's seen an increase in minutes lately and has shown clear improvements as we come up on the All-Star break.

He has cleared 17.5 PA in five straight games, averaging an enticing 24.6 PA per night in that span. This includes a 23.0-PA performance this past Tuesday against tonight's competition, the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The T-Wolves sport the league's best defensive rating, but that didn't stop Henderson from having a nice night in the previous meeting. The Blazers lack depth and, quite frankly, talent, so there's a lot to go around for players such as Henderson. Add in that the 2023 third overall pick has been shining as of late, and I think Portland will start to grant him a longer leash in games.

And for what it's worth, this matchup serves as the final game before the All-Star break. Minnesota touts the best record in a competitive Western Conference, so I wouldn't be surprised if, defensively speaking, they take their foot off the gas pedal in this ho-hum road game.

Add in that Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) will be out for the Blazers, and it's pretty easy to see Henderson's potential in this one. With the exception of one game in which Henderson played just six minutes after leaving with an injury, he is averaging 23.5 PA in six games without Brogdon.

numberFire projects Scoot for 13.9 points and 5.9 assists -- a total of 19.8 PA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.