NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 4/1/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Nikola Vucevic Over 27.5 Pts + Reb (-115)

The Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks -- two teams who currently hold the final play-in spots in the Eastern Conference -- will meet up tonight.

The Bulls play at the second-slowest pace in the league, while the Hawks play at the sixth-fastest pace.

We should see the Bulls come out of this one with more possessions than normal, making tonight a good spot to target Nikola Vucevic's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.

On the season, Vucevic is averaging 28.6 PR. He's been even better since the All-Star break, averaging 30.0 PR through 20 games.

Atlanta lets up the 10th-most points and rebounds to centers while also struggling with the fourth-worst defense in the NBA. Further, they surrender the fourth-most points to centers per 36 minutes and the seventh-most paint points in the Association, so it seems Vucevic is in for a friendly matchup.

Vucevic has been pretty dominant in pace-up games. In 24 contests against teams that rank in the top 10 of pace, he is averaging 30.1 PR

In one game against Atlanta this season, Vucevic managed 35 PR. The Hawks are now without Jalen Johnson, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu. The lack of depth with Atlanta's bigs could create plenty of putback opportunities for Vucevic.

Jrue Holiday Over 9.5 Reb + Ast (-113)

Jrue Holiday is averaging 10.5 combined rebounds and assists (RA) and has exceeded 9.5 RA in 59.6% of games where he played at least 30 minutes.

These -113 odds imply just a 53.1% probability, so we're getting this prop at a solid price, especially when considering the matchup.

The Boston Celtics will visit the Charlotte Hornets, a team that struggles with the second-worst defense in the league.

Holiday has been solid against poor defenses. In 20 games against teams that rank in the bottom 10 of defensive rating, he is averaging 10.1 RA.

If we only account for games in this split where Holiday played at least 28 minutes, he is averaging 10.9 RA and surpassed 9.5 RA in 12 out of 16 contests (75.0%).

The Hornets let up the third-most rebounds and the third-most assists per game to point guards.

While a blowout-based minutes restriction could rear its head in this one, the Celtics aren't always great at closing out games, especially on the road.

In fact, Holiday's production shoots up when he is on the road. He averages 9.7 RA when playing at TD Garden, while he nets 11.2 RA per road game.

FanDuel Research's projections are bullish on the over. They anticipate Holiday to net 11.5 RA in this one.

Trey Murphy III Under 25.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

I think the market has been too high on Trey Murphy III as of late.

On the season, Murphy is averaging 20.8 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He has recorded under 25.5 PRA in 39 of his 49 games.

Since Murphy is recording under 25.5 PRA at a towering 79.6% rate, these -113 odds, which suggest just a 53.1% probability feel off.

However, Brandon Ingram (knee) is out for the New Orleans Pelicans. His absence should result in higher production from Murphy, right?

Not really. In seven games without Ingram, Murphy is still averaging just 21.4 PRA. He recorded under 25.5 PRA in all but one Ingram-less game despite averaging 35 minutes per game in this span.

It's hard to make a case for Murphy, especially given tonight's matchup against the Phoenix Suns.

Entering Monday, the Pelicans sit in sixth place in the Western Conference standings, while the Suns are two games behind them in eighth place. Both teams are searching for a playoff berth and hoping to avoid the play-in.

With less than two weeks left in the regular season, this contest could not be more important, especially for Phoenix. I'd expect a playoff-like atmosphere to translate into a slower-than-normal pace and a more amped-up defense on both sides.

Murphy should see plenty of time on the court, but I would anticipate his role to grow foggy as the stars in this game, such as Zion Williamson, C.J. McCollum, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker, look to take over.

Our projections forecast just 22.9 PRA for Murphy this evening.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.