NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/18/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/18/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Georges Niang Over 15.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

The Cleveland Cavaliers come in as 6.5-point dogs against the Indiana Pacers tonight, all thanks to Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Dean Wade rounding out Cleveland's injury report.

Enter Georges Niang, a player who can shine with additional opportunity.

With the aforementioned players out, Niang has stepped into a starting role for Cleveland. As a starter, he is averaging 18.2 combined points and rebounds (PR) and has exceeded 15.5 PR in five out of seven games.

In six games without Mitchell, Mobley, and Strus, Niang is averaging 17.7 PR and surpassed 15.5 PR in all but one game.

Niang is in a great spot to clear 15.5 PR tonight regardless of his matchup. Once we factor in a date with Indiana, it is easy to see his potential.

The Pacers -- known for their high-scoring, defense-averse games -- play at the league's second-fastest pace. The Cavs are operating at the 10th-slowest pace in the NBA, so there should be more stats to go around for all Cavs in this pace-up game. Niang is no exception.

Indiana surrenders the second-most points and the second-most rebounds to forwards each game. They also let up the second-most paint points, which is where Niang nets 31.1% of his points.

FanDuel Research's projections expect Niang to take advantage of a bigger role in a pace-up environment. They have him set to record 16.9 PR against Indiana.

Cade Cunningham Over 27.5 Pts + Ast (-122)

Cade Cunningham is averaging 29.8 combined points and assists (PA) for the Detroit Pistons.

He has exceeded 27.5 PA in 63.2% of his games. And in contests where he has played at least 30 minutes -- Cunningham averages 33.6 minutes per game -- he is clearing 27.5 PA at a 75.0% rate.

Whichever way you spin it, these -122 odds, which suggest just a 54.9% probability, feel off.

Perhaps the market is intimidated by Cunningham's matchup for tonight, the Boston Celtics.

With the Celtics boasting a league-best 53-14 record, which puts them six games ahead of the NBA's next-best team, there is no debating that Boston is the best team in the Association. They lead the league in net rating by an obnoxious margin and tout the second-best defense.

But with that being said, the Celtics are not infallible, and they love to give up huge games to opposing guards.

Boston lets up the fifth-most points and the sixth-most assists per game to guards. They also cede the fifth-most three-point makes and paint points to this position, which is where Cunningham nets a combined 66.2% of his points.

The Pistons are 15.5-point underdogs, so this game is scorching with blowout potential.

However, Cunningham has played in 13 games where Detroit came in as 12-point dogs or bigger. In this split, he still managed to average 29.6 PA, so it seems blowout risk or straight-up blowouts do not have a negative impact on his production.

And while the Celtics are stomping on teams left and right, it is not without some stat-sacrificing. Boston has won their last three games by at least 15 points, with their average margin of victory standing at 19.0 points in that span. In that time, the Celtics still granted an opposing guard to record a minimum of 30.0 PA in each of these matchups.

Our projections have Cunningham set to record 28.2 PA in this one.

Brandin Podziemski Under 19.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-120)

The Golden State Warriors have a clean injury report, and I think the market may be overrating what Brandin Podziemski brings to the table on a fully-healthy Warriors team.

On the season, Podziemski is averaging 19.3 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He has recorded under 19.5 PRA in 51.7% of his games.

But Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins have all been sidelined at various points during the season, causing Podziemski to move up Golden State's depth chart.

Since these three aforementioned players will all suit up for tonight's contest against the New York Knicks, it seems apt to look at how Podziemski has performed alongside them. In 44 games with Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins suited up, Podz is recording under 19.5 PRA at a 65.9% clip.

These -120 odds imply just a 54.6% probability, so context proves we are getting a great deal on the under for this prop.

The Knicks will not be an easy matchup, either. They let up the second-fewest points, second-fewest rebounds, and eighth-fewest assists per game. On a Golden State team that is loaded with stat machines and depth, it's looking like Podz will have a tough time getting in on the fun.

The Warriors are used to playing at a high tempo, coming into this one with the league's 11th-fastest pace. The Knicks, on the other hand, play at the slowest pace in the league.

Golden State will be forced to slow things down tonight. Historically, Podz does not perform well in this environment. He has played in nine games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 of pace. In this split, he is averaging just 15.6 PRA and recorded under 19.5 PRA in 8 out of 10 games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.