MLB

3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Friday 4/5/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Friday 4/5/24

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Projections and odds may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Griffin Canning, P, Angels ($7,200)

Righty Griffin Canning is coming off a shaky start in the Los Angeles Angels' season opener, allowing seven hits, a walk, and five earned runs across five innings. Though that resulted in only 6.0 FanDuel points (FPs), he's in a nice spot to bounce back in a home start against the Boston Red Sox.

Despite Boston's 5-2 record, they're a measly 19th in runs per game (4.1). They've really struggled against righties, ranking 21st in wOBA (.292) and 25th in ISO (.098). Throw in their 25.8% strikeout rate (eighth-highest) in that split, and it's clear the Red Sox aren't a lineup to fade early in the season.

Granted, it's a small sample, but considering they had the second-highest BABIP (.309) against righties in 2023, some regression in 2024 isn't exactly a surprise.

That bodes well for Canning tonight. Despite the rough opener, Canning had a career year in 2023. The five-year vet set career-best marks for SIERA (3.80), strikeout rate (25.9%), and groundball rate (42.7%). He was especially strong down the stretch when he posted a 3.57 ERA and averaged 31.7 FPPG over his final six starts.

Tonight, he should further benefit from Boston's modest 4.18 implied total.

numberFire projects Canning for 32.8 FPs, making him the top point-per-dollar value among pitchers (4.56 FPs per $1,000).

Adam Duvall, OF, Braves ($2,600)

The Atlanta Braves have the slate's highest implied total (5.46), so it makes sense to turn to their lineup for some value.

With lefty Tommy Henry on the bump for the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks, Adam Duvall should be in the lineup. He hit sixth in their first two matchups against lefties -- not a bad spot to be in this loaded Atlanta lineup.

Duvall's career numbers against lefties are solid (.325 wOBA, .236 ISO, and .771 OPS), even if he wasn't great last season.

He'll benefit from playing at Truist Park, the 11th-best MLB ballpark for right-handed hitters, per Statcast.

Matchup-wise, I don't think we have to worry about Tommy Henry too much. The 26-year-old gave up five runs over four innings against the lowly Colorado Rockies -- not an ideal start for someone who's been north of a 4.00 ERA each of his first two seasons.

numberFire projects Duvall for 12.4 FPs, making him the fourth-best point per dollar value among hitters (4.75 FPs per $1,000). Batting in the middle of a lethal Braves order, Duvall makes sense as either a part of a Braves stack or a one-off value.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros ($2,900)

Alex Bregman has gotten off to a cold start this season, going 5 for 25 with no home runs and just a single RBI through seven games.

Consequently, Bregman's salary has dipped below $3,000 after peaking at $3.4K a few games back.

Despite the early results, nothing about Breman's profile is too concerning, and he's in a nice spot to bounce back at a manageable salary tonight.

While the veteran is only hitting .200 early on, his hard-hit rate (38.2%) and strikeout rate (13.8%) are essentially the same as last year. Bregman's swinging-strike rate is up from 2023, but he's no stranger to slow starts. He went hitless in the first four games of last season before turning it around, and we've already seen signs of life from the 30-year-old.

Bregman went 1 for 2 in Wednesday's season finale against Toronto, finishing with 15.2 FPs thanks to a pair of walks and a run scored.

I'm bullish he can carry that positive momentum into the Houston Astros' series opener against the Texas Rangers.

Cody Bradford is slated to start for the defending champs. The 26-year-old southpaw was sharp in his first start, striking out six and allowing two runs over five innings against the Chicago Cubs.

But we're talking about someone who ran a 5.30 ERA and surrendered a 43.5% hard-hit rate last season. There's a reason the Astros have the slate's second-highest implied total (5.03) and are -138 moneyline favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bregman has struggled against lefties the last two seasons, but his career splits are still rock-solid. Against lefties, the eight-year vet has a .374 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 1.12 walk-to-strikeout ratio.

Those splits, coupled with Houston's strong offensive projection, make Alex Bregman an intriguing value tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.