3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 8/8/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

Thursday features a rubber match between the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore knotted the series with a 7-3 win on Wednesday as their slugging came to the forefront with three home runs.

The O's will see Toronto's Kevin Gausman tonight, and he has given up 13 dingers over his last 11 appearances. That's been a problem all season as Gausman is in the bottom 11% of average exit velocity and bottom 14% of hard-hit percentage.

To make matters worse, Baltimore has the fifth-most runs above average against four-seam fastballs and the sixth-most when facing splitters. What are Gausman's most-used pitches? That's right, a four-seamer (54.1%) and splitter (33.1%).

The Orioles have boasted one of baseball's best power-hitting lineups all season, holding the highest slugging percentage (SLG), isolated power (ISO), and home run rate. Game 1 was a win for the Blue Jays, but it required holding Baltimore to only two runs.

Considering Gausman's weak numbers against power hitters, the O's should have plenty of run production. If Toronto's starter is pulled early, the Jays have the second-highest bullpen ERA, so the Orioles should be able to keep the offense going.

Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

Rays Over 3.5 Runs (-136)

The Tampa Bay Rays have been far from a daunting order, carrying the 4th-fewest runs scored and 11th-lowest wOBA. However, tonight's 3.5-run total against the St. Louis Cardinals feels too low.

Tampa is getting a pretty favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson. His ERA sits at 4.04, and advanced stats -- such as his 4.31 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) -- suggest it should be even higher.

Gibson has also allowed at least three earned runs in four of his past six starts and holds a 4.96 ERA with opponents hitting .295 over his last six.

Cutters and sweepers are among Gibson's three most-used pitches, and Tampa Bay is just outside the middle of the pack against each pitch with the 14th-fewest runs above average. Considering some of the Rays' dreadful batting numbers, this isn't too bad and bodes some confidence for going over 3.5 runs.

numberFire's MLB projections add to the case with 4.29 runs forecasted runs for the Rays. This suggests a 62.1% probability -- or -164 odds -- for over 3.5. The current -132 odds is a 56.9% probability.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.5 Runs (-108)

The last 10 games for the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks have been complete opposites. The Phillies are 3-7 during the stretch while the Diamondbacks are carrying a 8-2 record and are riding a four-game winning streak.

Arizona's pitching situation for Thursday is concerning, though. Jordan Montgomery has seen his numbers plummet in 2024 with a 6.37 ERA, compared to a 3.20 ERA last season. His numbers last year seemed a bit fortunate considering his 4.23 SIERA and 4.01 xFIP. It's gotten even worse in 2024, with Montgomery carrying a 5.07 SIERA and 4.78 xFIP.

The D-backs aren't doomed as the Phillies have their own problems with Kolby Allard on the rubber. He's spent a lot of time in the minors since 2022 and has made only 4 starts over his last 16 appearances.

Allard was thrown to the dogs on July 28th, giving up six hits and three earned runs in four innings (6.75 ERA) in his only start of 2024. His 4.65 SIERA and 4.93 xFIP should have Arizona's batting order ready to rake.

Ultimately, we should see plenty of scoring in this one. Each team is among the top half in runs scored and is facing a weak starter. Both bullpens are also outside of the top 10 in ERA. The over is 7-3 in Philly's last 10 and 8-2 in Arizona's previous 10.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.