3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/27/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/27/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles, 6:35 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-114)

The Texas Rangers (37-43) are at Camden Yards to start a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles (50-30). Given the lineups on hand, this should be an entertaining series.

Thursday's projected starters at Oriole Park are veterans Corbin Burnes and Jon Gray. Burnes has dazzled behind a 3.30 FIP since coming over to Baltimore. As for Gray, he's also been solid, owning a 3.79 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

Even with respectable arms on the hill, I am leaning toward over 7.5 runs (-114 odds). Transparently, 7.5 is tied for FanDuel's lowest MLB total on Thursday. Given how good the Orioles' offense is, I am willing to bite.

Baltimore's collective .776 OPS is the best clip in baseball. From there, the O's have crushed 132 home runs in 2024, which leads the rest of MLB by double digits. Oriole stars Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have already contributed more than 20 big flies each.

The Rangers might be struggling right now, but it is not as if we are talking about a helpless offense. Texas has plated 4.23 runs per game through 80 contests. Simply, I think there is enough firepower between both lineups to produce eight or more total runs.

numberFire is also supporting over 7.5 for Rangers-Orioles on Thursday; their model is suggesting 8.41 combined runs. Incidentally, that results in a 57.04% winning likelihood for over bettors.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET

Cardinals Moneyline (-138)

For an NL Central affair, the Cincinnati Reds (37-43) are visiting the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38) in what will be their fourth head-to-head meeting of 2024. On a warm evening at Busch Stadium, who has the edge?

The probable pitchers in downtown St. Louis tonight are Miles Mikolas and lefty Andrew Abbott. Ironically enough, both hurlers have posted a 6-6 record to this point.

Abbott (4.45 SIERA) last faced the Cards on May 28th at the Great American Ball Park, surrendering six earned runs on seven hits. Frankly, I am not expecting results to be too much better for him on enemy territory.

The Cardinals have won 7 of their past 10 contests, scoring 5.0 runs per game in that span. As for home games, the Red Birds have played to 22-16 results this year.

Across the way, Cincy has dropped 7 of their last 10 outings. Notably, the Reds are going down on strikes far too often, yielding a 24.3 K%. Of course, strikeouts are cantankerous when it pertains to consistent scoring. Knowing that, I'll take St. Louis' moneyline (-138 odds) at home.

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-124)

As a pleasant surprise in 2024, the AL Central has been one of MLB's most competitive groups. Thursday will highlight two of the division's top clubs when the Cleveland Guardians (51-27) and Kansas City Royals (44-38) get together at Kauffman Stadium.

By June 27th, the Guardians have compiled an eight-game lead in the AL Central. Still, the Royals have proven themselves to be quite formidable. Either way, both teams are within the better half of numberFire's nERD-based MLB power rankings.

Thursday's bid will be the first of a four-game tilt in Kansas City. In the opener, we'll see starting pitchers Michael Wacha (4.10 xFIP) and Ben Lively (4.25 xFIP).

Kauffman Stadium -- carrying a 106 park factor score this season -- is highly regarded as a hitter's park. It's also quite balmy in Kansas City on Thursday, so we should expect batted balls to carry well. Genuinely, I think these offenses can contribute nine or more total runs.

The Guardians (.731 OPS) and Royals (.702 OPS) both have talent on offense. Cleveland has smashed the fifth-most homers in the American League to this point while K.C. boasts an impressive 39.8% Statcast hard-contact rate as a team.

On a warm night inside "The K," we could see these lineups explode.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.