3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 8/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

Yankees -1.5 (+132)

The New York Yankees have a great chance to break out of their miniature rough patch today.

Though the Bombers have dropped three of their last four, they should have the edge on the mound in both splits today. That starts with starting pitcher Marcus Stroman. While Stroman's 4.88 expected ERA (xERA) isn't ideal, the veteran gets a hefty chunk of groundballs (49.2%) and does a decent job limiting hard contact (39.4%) against one of the easiest tests for him at present. The Texas Rangers' .634 OPS against righties in the past 30 days is third-worst in baseball.

On the offensive side, I like Aaron Judge to hit a bomb, but the Yanks' success against Andrew Heaney shouldn't be limited to just him. Heaney's flyball (46.5%) and hard-hit (40.3%) rates are well above the league average, and I see his 4.03 xERA as more vulnerable than Stroman's given the Yankees' superior .743 OPS in the past month in this split.

Plus, if we need a run late, New York's bullpen (4.17 xFIP) has greatly outperformed Texas' (4.79) over the past 30 days. All signs seem to point toward Judge and the Pinstripes getting back on track Sunday.

Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Twins Moneyline (-112)

Did the Minnesota Twins find something in David Festa?

Festa's early strikeout numbers are extremely promising of elite stuff. He's posted a 12.6% swinging-strike rate with at least six punchies in each of his last four starts. The righty's early battle with homers (2.22 HR/9) remains the concern, but it didn't hurt him across five scoreless in his last start.

He's got a great chance to keep that rolling against the Cleveland Guardians. Cleveland's .602 OPS against righties in the past month of play is second-worst in baseball. The Twinkies sport a .788 OPS in these same parameters (sixth-best in MLB), which means their sticks are a huge advantage against Tanner Bibee.

Bibee's a reliable arm, per a 3.62 xERA, but he's not immune to occasional issues with flyball (42.9%) and hard-contact (36.1%) rates. His xFIP, hard-hit rate allowed, and K/9 all drop away from Progressive Field, as well.

If Festa can keep pace, the Twins can close out this series with a third win in four days. Generally, I like backing Minnesota as a home club; their 34-22 record at Target Field is the seventh-best clip for straight up wins in the majors.

New York Mets at Seattle Mariners

Under 7.5 Runs (-115)

Both starting pitchers on Sunday Night Baseball might be a tad undervalued, so I'll steer into that angle for tonight's contest in one of the tougher hitting venues in baseball.

I think that's especially the case with Luis Severino of the New York Mets. Severino's xERA (3.92) is actually better than a decent 4.06 actual ERA, and it's been led by groundball (47.8%), hard-hit (35.8%), and barrel (5.4%) rates allowed. All of those are 75th percentile or better across MLB. Though improved in the past 30 days, the Mariners' .692 team OPS against righties (.692) is still 10th-worst in baseball.

On the other side, Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners has a 3.81 xERA himself, buoyed by an elite rate of getting hitters to chase (31.1% rate). Intriguingly, the Mets have really started to chase against righties recently with the ninth-highest K rate (24.4%) in the split over the past 30 days.

Plus, to bring the full-game total home, these are two of the top-12 bullpen (by xFIP) in the past 30 days. This seems like another spot where we see a quick, low-scoring affair to close out the week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.