MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 5/31/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 (-120)

For the upcoming weekend, MLB will showcase several unique interleague pairings. Personally, I have my eyes on a clash between the San Diego Padres (30-29) and Kansas City Royals (35-23) at Kauffman Stadium.

Both sides here have playoff aspirations in 2024. From there, both clubs on hand are powered by explosive offenses. The moneylines (SD -142/+120 KC) at FanDuel Sportsbook are narrow in Friday's contest, and with that, I find the most optimism on over 7.5 runs (-120 odds).

The projected starters in this series opener are Dylan Cease and Michael Wacha. Wacha has been solid for the Royals, posting a 4.09 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) this season. As for Cease, he owns an impressive 3.19 xFIP, but he also shows a career-high barrel rate (10.8%). Cease is also used to operating at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but "The K" plays much more lively.

Kauffman Stadium is widely known as a hitter's park. Over the past three campaigns, the MLB venue in K.C. is tagged with a 105 Park Factor score, which is the third-highest in baseball.

The Padres and Royals can both swing it in the batter's box. San Diego is currently sporting a .709 team OPS while Kansas City shows .721 in that same metric -- both are top-10 marks. This contest also features two of MLB's most dynamic offensive players in fellow sons of baseball Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr..

This 7.5-run total is the second-lowest over/under on today's board. Given the ballpark and respective lineups, I believe the Friars and Crowns will score eight or more combined runs. The projections at numberFire concur, offering a 63.81% winning likelihood for over bettors in this bid.

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET

Brewers -1.5 (+126)

Continuing the interleague theme, the Chicago White Sox (15-42) will make the short trip up Lake Michigan to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (33-23). These ball clubs are trending in opposite directions -- Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central while Chicago is in the AL Central's cellar.

The probable pitchers at American Family Field on Friday are righties Erick Fedde and rookie Tobias Myers. Fedde has displayed mixed results for the ChiSox behind a 5.00 SIERA this season. Across the way, Myers is making his seventh career start, logging a 1.39 WHIP thus far.

When it comes to the respective offenses, the Brewers have been far better than the Sox. Entering Friday, Milwaukee's .745 team OPS is the fourth-highest in baseball. Additionally, the Brew Crew has produced 5.04 runs per game while Chicago -- at 2.82 runs per game -- is the lowest-scoring side in the Majors.

I like Milwaukee on the run line tonight (+126 odds). Right now, the Brewers are 32-24 ATS (57.1% cover rate) in 2024, which is the second-best run-line record on the Senior Circuit. With the Brewers going against one of the worst teams in baseball, I like the home team to win by two or more runs.

New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET

Giants Moneyline (+118)

To renew a classic baseball rivalry between NYC's boroughs, the New York Yankees (39-19) will head to Northern California to face the San Francisco Giants (29-28). Originally, the Giants were Manhattan's team, and the now-West Coast franchise still has support in the Big Apple.

Since moving to San Francisco in 1958, the Giants have hosted the Yankees in only six regular-season games. Presently, New York will arrive in the Bay Area after winning back-to-back series in SoCal. The Bronx Bombers might be top dog in the A.L. -- carrying two-to-one odds to win the American League -- but if any club is hotter than the Yanks right now, it is San Francisco.

The Giants have snapped off 10 wins over their past 13 games. In the process, they managed to cool off the surging Philadelphia Phillies -- perhaps the Yanks will suffer the same fate upon entering the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park (27th of 30 on Baseball Savant's Park Factor scale).

On Friday, San Francisco comes in as a +118 home underdog at FanDuel Sportsbook. Those odds carry 45.9% implied probability. Conversely, numberFire's MLB game projections give the Giants a 55.5% chance at victory tonight. ESPN Analytics also likes the home team here, presenting S.F. with a 52% winning likelihood.

Jordan Hicks (3.94 SIERA) will toe the rubber for the Giants while Marcus Stroman (4.30 SIERA) gets the ball for the Yankees. Both right-handers have been quality in 2024, but Hicks is heading for a career campaign. He has been masterfully efficient for San Francisco, allowing just 0.62 HR/9 throughout 58 innings pitched en route to a 3.94 SIERA.

I respect New York's cast of sluggers, but they may experience a power shortage today on the shores of San Francisco Bay. With cold air surrounding the yard tonight, I like Hicks, Matt Chapman and the Giants straight up.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.