3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 7/3/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 7/3/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Bryan De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Let's start our home run picks with enticing +600 odds, and if you're backing someone to hit a longball tonight, make sure to take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's 30% profit boost on home run wagers for July 3rd.

Bryan De La Cruz of the Miami Marlins isn't touting eye-popping stats by any means with 15 big flies and a .239 batting average. So why take De La Cruz to go yard tonight?

He will face the Boston Red Sox's Brayan Bello, who is in the bottom 33% of hard-hit percentage, per Savant. This has been a consistent issue with Bello as he also finished in the bottom 13% of the category in 2023. Bello has surrendered a dinger in three of his previous four starts.

Pitch usage can often be a useful tool to determine who could hit one over the fence. Bello's sinker sticks out like a sore thumb as he owns a 51.4% hard-hit percentage; this is also his most-used pitch (40.4%).

Meanwhile, De La Cruz is among the top 30% in barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. He has an expected batting average (xBA) of .292 against fastballs paired with an expected slugging rate (xSLG) of .566. The Marlins' outfielder has 11 homers against fastballs. Sinkers are a welcomed sight with De La Cruz batting .286 versus the pitch, according to FanGraphs.

Miami's home run leader is fully equipped to take advantage of Bello's weakness on Wednesday.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+300)

June was a month to forget for Yusei Kikuchi as he touted a 6.26 ERA over the month while giving up seven dingers in six starts. The Houston Astros have a slugger who rakes against left-handed pitchers, potentially spelling another tough outing for Kikuchi.

Who is the nightmare matchup for lefties? Yordan Alvarez has been one of the game's most prominent sluggers for several seasons, reaching at least 30 homers in each of the last three seasons. He currently sits at 18 big flies (tied for 11th-most), and Alvarez could be poised to make it 19 after going yard in his last two contests.

The left-handed slugger is slashing .346/.400/.542 when facing southpaws. Plus, the Astros are on the road, and Alvarez has a slash line of .350/.412/.631 when away from home. That .631 SLG should draw a lot of attention, especially when it's .442 at home.

Kikuchi's four-seam fastball (46.8%) and curveball (44.6%) have been on the receiving ends of hard hits. Alvarez is hitting .309 when facing four-seam fastballs. Considering his success against lefties on the road, the Astros' star slugger could launch a bomb for the third straight game.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Our final pick of the day is far from a surprise. Shohei Ohtani has the second-most homers (27) while carrying the second-highest clips in both hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage in MLB. He's logged seven dingers over his last 10 games.

Backing Ohtani can get redundant, but we can't ignore his matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' MVP frontrunner -- he's at -250 odds to win NL MVP -- will be licking his chops against a wide-eyed rookie on the mound.

Cristian Mena is expected to make his first start in the majors. His stats have been nothing special in Triple-A this season. If anything, they are concerning, and his first test being the Los Angeles Dodgers is a very tall task as Mena posted a 4.90 ERA over 16 starts in Triple A.

Most importantly, Mena was regularly giving up homers in Triple-A, surrendering 15 big flies over his 16 appearances. What happens when he faces one of the best sluggers of this generation?

The wind is forecasted to be blowing out today in LA. This only boosts Ohtani's chances of knocking one into the crowd.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game on July 3rd! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.