3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 8/1/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Baltimore Orioles are a good team to zero in on for homer props as they're taking on Ben Lively.

Lively, a righty, has a longball problem. Since the start of 2023, he's permitted 1.72 jacks per nine innings. He's been mashed by hitters from both sides of the plate, and the O's offer a handful of quality bats so there are a lot of viable options.

I settle on Gunnar Henderson.

The Orioles' star shortstop has 28 dingers on the year, and 22 of those have come against right-handers. He's also been more productive on the road (.412 wOBA) than at home (.384).

Henderson had a power outage in July, going deep just twice and posting a meh -- by his standards -- .330 wOBA. The slump in July came after a red-hot June where he recorded a .457 wOBA.

He's popped at least eight home runs in every month aside from July, so he should get back to his usual ways soon enough. A matchup with a homer-prone pitcher could be exactly what Henderson needs, and he's shown signs of heating up with a 44.4% hard-hit rate across the last six games.

Going by our MLB projections, Henderson carries the day's highest HR projection.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Keider Montero is another pitcher going Thursday who has a gopher-ball problem.

Montero's MLB sample is only 36 2/3 frames, but he's allowed 2.45 homers per nine. He's been battered by both lefties and righties.

Vinnie Pasquantino can take advantage.

The Kansas City Royals' slugger has put up a 45.3% fly-ball rate against right-handers, and he's swinging it well at the moment, slugging his way to a .408 wOBA and 43.9% fly-ball rate over his past 48 plate appearances.

Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Ryan McMahon is in a good spot tonight versus Carson Fulmer.

The right-handed Fulmer has surrendered 1.48 homers per nine to lefties throughout his career. In 2024, his K rate against left-handed hitters is a lowly 16.9%. He's made just three starts this season, working mostly out of the bullpen, but Fulmer has allowed a dinger in two of those three starts.

While McMahon isn't in Coors tonight, his road production this year has been pretty solid as he owns a .335 wOBA in the split. Ten of his 16 homers have come with the platoon advantage.

McMahon launched a home run in the first game of his series, and he's capable of doing it again in tonight's series finale.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.