MLB

3 FanDuel MLB DFS Value Plays for Wednesday 6/26/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Hayden Wesneski, P, Cubs ($7,400)

A five-game main slate doesn't lend itself to a ton of value on the bump, butHayden Wesneski has shown enough in relief that I'm willing to take a chance on him in his return to the starting rotation.

This will be just the fourth start of the season for Wesneski and his first since May 8th. He's found much more success as a starter, pitching to a 2.20 ERA and 2.36 FIP across 16.1 innings. Though a 21.5% K rate has capped his upside, he's still finished with 18, 47, and 22 FanDuel points across three starts.

Wesneski's cut his ERA from 4.63 in 2023 to 3.29 this season in large part thanks to improved batted-ball metrics. He's upped his ground-ball rate to 45.8% and lowered his barrel rate to 8.4%. Opponents are generating hard contact at just a 23.5% clip against the righty -- the lowest mark among today's starters.

That sets him up to out-perform his $7,400 salary in a road date with the San Francisco Giants. San Fran has been an above-average offense this month, but their season-long numbers against righties aren't anything to shy away from.

In that split, the Giants rank 17th in wRC+ (97), 21st in wOBA (.300), and 26th in ISO (.131). They've struck out at only a 21.6% clip against right-handed pitchers for the season, though that's crept up to 23.0% in June.

Wesneski isn't a guarantee to go deep into the game, but he has tossed six innings in two of three starts this season. He'll also benefit from pitching at Oracle Park -- the fourth-worst venue for hitters, per Statcast's Park Factors -- and makes for an intriguing salary-saver in hitter-heavy builds.

Jose Miranda, 1B/3B, Twins ($2,700)

The Minnesota Twins have a mouth-watering road matchup with Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks, so they're a lineup I want to prioritize tonight.

Nelson has been dreadful this season, pitching to a 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP across 13 appearances (12 starts). His ERA indicators -- 4.87 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, and 4.67 SIERA -- aren't much better, nor are his quality of contact measurements (9.5% barrel rate and 37.8% rate of hard contact).

The righty is generating whiffs at only an 8.3% clip, and that's translated to a measly 15.1% K rate. That's played a role in him allowing three-plus runs in seven of 12 starts, and it makes Minnesota a lineup to target today.

The Twins are certainly stackable given their friendly salaries, but I'm more than happy to turn to righty Jose Miranda even as a one-off.

Miranda appears to be putting it together this season, setting career-best marks in AVG (.284), ISO (.196), and barrel rate (7.6%). He's been especially potent against right-handed pitching, registering a .386 wOBA, .233 ISO, and 154 wRC+ in the split.

Though Nelson is a righty, as well, he's actually pitched worse against right-handed hitters this season. In righty-righty spots, he has surrendered a .417 wOBA and .567 SLG while pitching to a 4.54 xFIP.

In one of the slate's top stacks, Miranda makes for a strong value play at either corner infield spot.

Michael Busch, 1B/2B/3B, Cubs ($2,600)

The Giants are calling up righty Hayden Birdsong to make his first career start tonight. While San Fran's sixth-ranked prospect could very-well have a bright future, the Giants have already said his call-up has come sooner than they anticipated because of their need for pitching.

Birdsong pitched to a 2.05 ERA in Double-A, but that regressed to 5.00 ERA across two starts in Triple-A. His FIP has hovered over 3.50 at both levels, so overall, Chicago is in a decent spot to do damage in his major league debut.

Specifically, I'm eyeing Michael Busch as a value play. The rookie infielder has come on strong this month after a cold May. Across 20 June outings, Busch is batting .316 with a 150 wRC+.

The lefty-hitter has mashed against righties all season, so this is a nice spot to jump on his hot streak. In that split, Busch has a .347 wOBA, .195 ISO, and 126 wRC+.

All nine of his home runs have come against righties, and Busch owns an 18.4% HR/FB rate in this split. He has +750 odds to hit a home run and +175 odds to record 2+ total bases tonight.

Our projections peg him for 13.3 FanDuel points. That ranks 12th among all hitters and makes him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.12 FanDuel points per $1,000).


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.