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3 Correlated Prop Bets for the Super Bowl
Everything that has transpired during the regular season and the playoffs has led to the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers squaring off in the Super Bowl.
When coming up with bets to wager on during the Super Bowl -- or any game for that matter -- we tend to create narratives in our heads. Within this article, we'll be creating scenarios and discussing a few correlated prop bets in the NFL player props market on FanDuel Sportsbook that support the narrative we've manufactured.
With that in mind, let's dive into a few correlated prop bets for the impending Super Bowl bout between the Chiefs and the 49ers.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after the article is published.
Super Bowl Correlated Prop Bets
If the 49ers Gash the Chiefs' Weak Run Defense
- Brock Purdy under 31.5 passing attempts (-128)
- Christian McCaffrey over 18.5 rushing attempts (-122)
- Christian McCaffrey over 90.5 rushing yards (-110)
Instead of trying to attack the second-best scheduled-adjusted pass defense of the Chiefs, via numberFire's metrics, the 49ers could elect to lean on Christian McCaffrey and their rushing attack. Placing confidence in San Francisco's ground game in the Super Bowl can begin with a wager on Brock Purdy to have fewer than 32 passing attempts.
Purdy has registered 32-plus attempts in only two of his 18 starts this season. The second-year quarterback sees most of his production in the passing game come from explosive plays down the field rather than volume.
In the scenario where the 49ers pound the rock often, McCaffrey could eclipse over 18.5 rushing attempts. While McCaffrey has reached 19-plus rushing attempts in only seven of his 18 starts this season, he had 20 carries in last week's win over the Detroit Lions.
Lastly, taking McCaffrey to record at least 91 rushing yards makes sense in this scenario as he averages 91.5 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs also have the fifth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense and allow the ninth-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.42), via NextGenStats.
If Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce Continue to Carry the Chiefs
If the Chiefs want to secure their third Super Bowl victory in the last five years, they're going to need Patrick Mahomes to continue playing at an elite level. And if Mahomes has a productive outing against the 49ers, there's a good chance Travis Kelce will also have a noteworthy performance.
This is the Super Bowl, and there's no reason why Andy Reid won't let Mahomes put the ball in the air often despite having a lack of weapons. Mahomes has tossed multiple touchdowns in 10 of his 19 starts, but the All-Pro signal-caller has multiple passing touchdowns in 12 of his 17 postseason appearances (including multiple passing touchdowns in two of his previous three Super Bowl matchups).
Even though it was an inconsistent regular season for Kelce -- at least for his standards -- the veteran tight end has stepped up in a large way in the playoffs. Kelce has 71-plus receiving yards in all three of Kansas City's postseason contests so far, and he's logged 71-plus receiving yards in 12 consecutive playoff games with Mahomes at quarterback.
If San Francisco's Offense Attacks Kansas City's Defense With Quick Passes
- Brock Purdy over 20.5 passing completions (-122)
- Christian McCaffrey over 4.5 receptions (-134)
- Deebo Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-122)
We've already discussed how the 49ers could elect to run the ball aggressively to combat the formidable pass defense of the Chiefs. But what if the 49ers choose to have Purdy get the ball out quickly to his playmakers to prevent Kansas City's talented secondary from getting too involved in the game?
If the 49ers have Purdy make quick decisions, the young quarterback could hit the over on his pass completions at 20.5. Purdy achieved 21-plus pass completions in only seven of his 18 starts, but five of those came against teams in the top half of the league in blitz rate, and the Chiefs blitz at the sixth-highest rate (36.3%).
McCaffrey is tied for the third-highest target share (19.5%), and he has tallied the second-most receptions (78) on the 49ers. The league's leading rusher has posted five-plus receptions in seven of his last 11 games while the Chiefs have given up the eighth-most receptions (93) to running backs.
Besides McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel is another player in San Francisco's offense who can make the most of every touch he receives. Despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the Conference Championship Round, Samuel led the 49ers in receptions (8), and his yards-after-catch ability increases his odds of being peppered with quick targets.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
