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3 Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets for Week 5

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3 Best NFL Same Game Parlay Bets for Week 5

Looking for a new way to bet on the NFL this season? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook.

This article will provide some SGPs builds to consider each week based on the games and props available, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for this week's NFL action?

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL SGP Bets to Target: Week 5

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Under 44.5 (-115)
De'Von Achane Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Tetairoa McMillan Over 4.5 Receptions (-144)

Combined Odds: +517

Among this week's slate, our Brandon Gdula has the Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers with the slowest adjusted pace for Week 5. Each team is in the top 13 for the most seconds per play, further suggesting a slow pace.

Both offenses have struggled as Miami is posting only 20.8 points per game (13th-fewest) while Carolina is recording 18.8 points per game (7th-fewest). While these defenses are in the bottom five for the most yards per play allowed, the slow pace should still insure an under.

Total Match Points

Under
Oct 5 5:01pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Miami touts the seventh-highest pass-play rate, but Tyreek Hill is out for the season from a knee injury. Furthermore, the Dolphins have found themselves in plenty of negative game scripts, but Sunday's matchup should be close with Miami favored by 1.5 points.

Between a favorable script and the Hill injury, Miami could lean on De'Von Achane and the run more often. We saw that last week with 31 rushing attempts compared to 25 passing attempts; keep in mind the Fins have a 61.0% pass-play rate on the season.

Achane has been efficient by logging 4.9 yards per rushing attempt and 0.08 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry -- via NFL Next Gen Stats. After posting only 10.0 rushing attempts per game over the first three games, Miami finally gave him a larger workload with 20 carries in Week 4.

Our NFL DFS projections have Achane totaling 15.5 rushing attempts and 76.3 rushing yards. His efficiency paired with Carolina surrendering 4.9 yards per rushing attempt (sixth-most) should vault Achane to over 65.5 rushing yards.

Rounding out our parlay, the Panthers could attack any which way with Miami allowing the third-highest rush success rate and highest pass success rate. Carolina has totaled only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt (10th-fewest), and starting running back Chuba Hubbard (calf) will be out, leaving the backfield to Rico Dowdle and his -1.52 RYOE per carry.

Leaning on the air attack could be the path to success, and rookie Tetairoa McMillan is on our buy low wide receivers for Week 5. He's averaging 8.8 targets per game and has reached five receptions in two of four outings. Projections have McMillan reaching 4.8 receptions, and Hubbard's injury could cause the Panthers to stick to their eighth-highest pass-play rate.

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals

Titans +8.5 (-118)
Cardinals Under 25.5 (-106)
Michael Carter Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Combined Odds: +247

After failing to cover three consecutive spreads, banking on the Tennessee Titans seems like a fool's errand. However, the Arizona Cardinals have problems of their own with the offense posting a dreadful 4.6 yards per play (seventh-fewest) while running backs James Conner (foot) and Trey Benson (knee) are on injured reserve.

For an offense logging 4.5 yards per carry (14th-most) compared to 5.7 yards per passing attempt (5th-fewest), Arizona's production could only get worse following injuries in the backfield. Plus, the Titans surrender the 16th-lowest rush success rate. Tennessee has held up in the red zone, too, surrendering the 9th-lowest red zone scoring rate while the Cards have the 14th-lowest mark on offense.

Arizona is averaging 20.5 points per game (10th-lowest) and has surpassed 25 points in only one of four games. This game also carries the second-slowest adjusted pace of Week 5. As the 41.5 total suggests, a low-scoring game feels imminent -- which could keep it close. Give me Tennessee to cover while the Cardinals go under 25.5 points.

Spread

Tennessee Titans
Oct 5 8:06pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Sticking with Arizona's ground game, the role is expected to be split between Emari Demercado and Michael Carter. In Week 4, Demercado had a 40.6% snap share compared to Carter posting 6.3%. In fact, Carter had not taken a snap prior to Week 4 while Demercado totaled one snap in Week 2 followed by seven in Week 3. Between the two, Demercado should get most of the work.

However, Carter carries a prop of 46.5 rushing yards while Demercado does not have a line (as of Friday afternoon). Projections have Carter logging 10.0 carries for 41.9 rushing yards. His 12.5 rushing attempt prop feels a tad high, causing his rushing yard prop to feel inflated.

Considering the Titans' decent run defense paired with the Cardinals touting the ninth-highest pass-play rate, I'll take under 46.5 rushing yards for Carter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Over 44.5 (-115)
Emeka Egbuka 70+ Receiving Yards (+118)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Combined Odds: +415

Week 5's fifth-quickest matchup in adjusted pace is a meeting between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. After posting 32.7 points per game over the last three games, Seattle should stay hot with Tampa Bay giving up the sixth-highest adjusted pass success rate. Sam Darnold is one of our quarterbacks to stream in Week 5 thanks to 0.31 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) over his previous three games.

Both defenses are in the top eight for the lowest rush success rates allowed. Similar to the Buccaneers, the Seahawks' pass D looks more susceptible by giving up the 12th-lowest adjusted pass success rate. Furthermore, Seattle's cornerbacks Josh Jobe (57.3 coverage grade) and Tariq Woolen (40.1 coverage grade) have concerning coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus. Baker Mayfield carries an impressive 0.10 EPA/db, and the Bucs could more inclined lean on the pass with running back Bucky Irving (foot) inactive.

Total Match Points

Over
Oct 5 8:06pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

A quick pace and two efficient quarterbacks should drive this to the over, and this goes hand-in-hand with our next pick. Emeka Egbuka comes off his best game yet with four catches for 101 receiving yards. The first-round rookie has steadily seen his workload increase, posting 6, 7, 8, and 10 targets from Week 1 to 4. Mike Evans (hamstring) is still out, and Chris Godwin logged a -9.1 catch rate over expectation (CROE) and -25.3 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) in his first game back from injury a week ago.

Godwin will likely continue to show some rust, making Egbuka the top target of this offense for now. He led Tampa Bay's wideouts with an 89.7% snap rate and 86.4% route share in Week 4, leading to a 25.6% target share and 45.2% air yards share. Seattle also runs man coverage at the 11th-highest clip, and Egbuka carries a 76.4 receiving grade vs. zone compared to 50.3 when seeing zone. After averaging 93.0 receiving yards per game over the last two, projections have Egbuka totaling 76.5 receiving yards.

Our final leg involves another former Ohio State Buckeye Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is averaging 100.5 receiving yards per game. He's carrying a huge workload with a 35.4% target share, 48.2% air yards share, and 54.1% downfield target share. JSN has been a big-play machine with 15.5 yards per reception, and this paired with 8.5 targets per game is leading to a healthy total of receiving yards.

Tampa Bay holds the 11th-highest man coverage rate, playing into Smith-Njigba's hands as he sports a 91.5 receiving grade against man coverage compared to 77.0 when facing zone. Smith-Njigba has been a constant over pick to start the season; if it's not broke, don't fix it. With the Buccaneers allowing a high pass success rate while playing plenty of man coverage, JSN should keep up his gaudy stats.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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