3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Chargers at Chiefs on Sunday Night Football

The AFC West is better than anyone could have predicted, but it's just about all over if the home team wins this primetime matchup.

The 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs are poised to snatch the top overall seed in AFC and can put the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers to bed with a home win on Sunday -- especially since they've already beaten L.A. in their building.

There's a tight 3.5-point spread in this one as the Bolts' four defeats have come by a combined 19 points. Will the Chargers keep the division alive, or will the Chiefs take another massive step toward a three-peat?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Chargers at Chiefs Betting Picks

Chargers +3.5 (-105)
Under 42.5 Points (-105)
Chiefs Under 23.5 Points (-108)

In one of the strangest dynamics in betting football, the league's best team (by record) is also one of its worst bets.

Kansas City is 5-7 against the spread (ATS) this season, which is tied for the ninth-worst winning percentage against the handicap in the NFL. It's sort of hard for a two-time defending champion whose tight end is also dating a pop music superstar to not be overvalued by the general betting public, right?

They're a dangerous team to lay a hook like this with because of an inability to separate. They have just a +54 point differential, which is the worst of any team in NFL history that's winning percentage was at least .900 after Thanksgiving.

Realistically, K.C. should have lost to the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and they're sliding quickly in numberFire's schedule-adjusted efficiency rankings. The Chiefs' 9th-ranked offense and 13th-ranked defense aren't special in either category, and the Chargers -- 15th and 6th in those categories, respectively -- are actually a pretty comparable opponent whose weakest aspect will be aided by a K.C.'s weakest.

Though projecting the Chiefs to win 59.1% of the time, numberFire recommends taking the hook here.

One of the reasons why is that points could be hard to come by on Sunday night. Chilly temperatures and modest winds won't help a shootout.

In addition to these two teams holding top-half defensive rankings, the tempo and play-style boxes are also checked. Los Angeles in 9th in the NFL in rush rate (46.7%) under Jim Harbaugh, and Kansas City might get back to running the ball now that Isiah Pacheco is back in the fold.

14 of these team's 24 games this season have landed on an under. L.A. is also 31st in plays per game (59.6) to Kansas City's 4th (64.3), presenting a pace-down spot for the better offense.

"Better offense" on its own is an intriguing statement when the Chiefs have scored 21 or fewer points in three of the last four games, and the exception came against the Carolina Panthers. Against the Bolts' top-10 defense, I'm inclined to also bet K.C.'s team total under a key scoring number of 23.0.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.