3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Bills at Lions, Week 15

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Buffalo Bills take on the Detroit Lions? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bills at Lions Betting Picks

Alternate Total Over 59.5 Points (+162)

My model for betting NFL totals dates back to Week 15 of 2022, which is a 585-game sample.

I've never had a total as high as this one, currently sitting at 55.0 points.

What makes that more wild is how tight the spread is (my model's Week 15 NFL predictions have the Lions favored by 2.7 points). It means it's projecting both sides to put up a bunch of points, potentially setting us up for a full-blown shootout.

With the new kickoff rules, the average field position after a score has improved a decent amount. This can lead to a cascading effect where one score leads to another more rapidly than in years past. It likely partially explains why scoring in 2024 is up two points through Week 14 from where it was at the same point last year. It has made me more willing to bet alt totals when I think teams can answer scores quickly, and these two offenses can.

The Bills are second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, and the Lions are third. Both defenses are top-10 there, but the Lions are dealing with a bunch of key injuries, and last week showed the Bills can be beaten up by a good enough foe.

With the implied odds at 38.2% here, I'm willing to swing for the fences if betting on the over.

Josh Allen to Score 2-Plus Touchdowns (+850)

The tush push has been around for two years, but I still think sportsbooks undervalue rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks on teams that partake. As last week showed, Josh Allen is in that category.

Since the start of last year, Allen has played 30 regular-season games. He has multiple rushing touchdowns in 5 of those, a 16.7% rate. The implied odds at +850 are 10.5%, well below that mark.

The same process works for Allen to score just once. He's +115 to score there, which is 46.5% implied odds. He has at least one rushing score in 60.0% of games in this span, so you can happily take the single score and call it a day. I just don't mind aggression when I think a key element is being undervalued, and that's how I view things with the tush push in play.

Jameson Williams 70-Plus Receiving Yards (+162)

In the past, Jameson Williams was an alt-market target because he was a big-play merchant. You were hoping he'd get there on a single look.

Recently, though, his role is trending up, meaning he has multiple paths to cashing an over here.

In the games Williams and Sam LaPorta have played this year, Williams' target share is 18.9% with 31.7% of the deep targets. Even omitting the game LaPorta sat, Williams has used those shares to get to 70-plus receiving yards in 5 of 9 games, a 55.5% rate.

Additionally, Williams' role has been sweetening of late. He has seven-plus targets in three straight games with multiple deep targets in each of those. Even if he doesn't pop a long ball, this means he can get there via volume, instead.

Eventually, Amon-Ra St. Brown's role will re-expand, at which time Williams may take a hit. Until then, I'm willing to keep snagging alt overs on a guy whose role is still undersold by the market.

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Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.