3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Monday 7/21/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Jacob Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108); Lopez to Record 7-Plus Strikeouts (+225)

I like Jacob Lopez enough where I want to ladder his strikeout props, giving me upside should he hit his ceiling.

Lopez has made a shift recently, emphasizing his changeup more heavily. He has thrown it 21.9% of the time his past six starts, up from just 13.9% for the full season. His 35.3% whiff rate on that pitch is highest among all his pitches, according to Baseball Savant, so more is a good thing for us. Across those six starts, he has eight-plus strikeouts three times despite some tough matchups.

Tonight is not one of those. The Texas Rangers' active roster has a 65 wRC+ and 27.5% strikeout rate against lefties, both worst in the entire league.

That's why I want a little "swing-for-the-fences" action. What I'd like to do is take my typical bet size and divide it up, putting the majority on the baseline prop with the rest on his alt market. That way, I can profit as long as he meets expectations while getting a sweeter payout should Lopez continue to ride that changeup to glory.

Bryce Elder Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+108)

This is the fourth time this season I've shown value on the over for Bryce Elder's strikeout prop. He's a crisp 0-3 in the other three cracks. That oughta boost the ol' confidence in betting this.

Lucky for us, a lot of those were early in the season, and Elder has made some strides of late. In his past nine starts, he has opted to reduce his four-seam usage in favor of his sinker, and he's one of the few pitchers in the league with a higher whiff rate on the latter than the former. His strikeout rate in those 9 starts is 21.6%, up from 19.4% for the season.

He's still letting up far too much hard contact, which is why his ERA is 6.04. But that issue should only up the incentive for him to prevent balls in play.

Elder's matchup with the San Francisco Giants is tough because their plate-discipline skills are elite. But with Elder's strikeouts ticking up and with this game in Atlanta, I do think the over is a quality play.

Shane Baz to Record 7-Plus Strikeouts (+140)

The sample on Shane Baz ditching his slider for a cutter is still small, but the early returns are good enough for me to buy in.

Baz hasn't thrown his slider since June 4th, opting instead to start using the cutter on June 15th, six starts ago. Weirdly, the slider had just a 17.1% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. The cutter -- which Baz says is more to get lefties to make weak contact than get swinging strikes -- actually has a higher whiff rate at 24.1%. This gives him four pitches he throws, all of which have a whiff rate of at least 24%.

This has translated to more strikeouts. In this six-start span, Baz's strikeout rate is 26.8% despite making four of those starts on the road. He has hit this alt market in half of those starts.

The opposing Chicago White Sox aren't a big strikeout team, but they also boast just an 83 wRC+ against righties. This should allow Baz to work deep in the game to flirt with this number via volume. I have him projected at 7.21 strikeouts, high enough for me to go with the higher-upside market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.