3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Monday 5/12/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Ahead of his ninth start of the 2025 season, Tanner Houck is producing forgettable metrics against left-handed hitters, permitting a .445 wOBA, 1.95 WHIP, and 2.57 HR/9 in that split (compared to a .272 wOBA, 1.03 WHIP, and 0.89 HR/9 against right-handed hitters). Taking that into account, Kerry Carpenter is someone I'm eyeing to go deep on Monday, especially since he'll likely be batting leadoff for the Detroit Tigers.

Carpenter has performed well versus right-handed hurlers this season, posting a .381 wOBA, 150 wRC+, .252 ISO, and just a 14.2% strikeout rate in that split. On top of that, Carpenter is ranked in the 92nd percentile in xSLG (.565), 84th percentile in barrel rate (14.5%), and 84th percentile in squared-up rate (30.8%).

Although it's still early in the 2025 campaign, Carpenter has also enjoyed playing in front of the home fans at Comerica Park, logging an elite .382 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and .321 ISO across his first 59 plate appearances at home. Besides the fact that the Boston Red Sox typically let Houck pitch deep into games, Carpenter has a .212 ISO or better versus Houck's three primary pitches (sinker, sweeper, and splitter) against left-handed batters since the start of last season.

Wyatt Langford to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Texas Rangers have struggled in the power department to begin the season, but a matchup against Chase Dollander and the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies could kickstart some positive results. Across his first 6 starts and 28.0 innings pitched, Dollander is sitting in the 5th percentile in xERA (6.36), 33rd percentile in strikeout rate (19.2%), 3rd percentile in barrel rate (16.5%), and 25th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.1%).

While Dollander does have worse numbers against left-handed hitters, we shouldn't ignore his .377 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 given up to right-handed hitters. Despite Wyatt Langford not hitting a dinger since April 23, this is a perfect spot for him to add to his home run tally this season.

Langord is registering a formidable .357 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and .207 ISO versus right-handed pitching to begin the year, and two of his four long ball against righties so far have occurred versus a cutter and four-seam fastball. It just so happens that those are Dollander's two primary pitches against righties.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+450)

It's a small sample to begin the new campaign, but Manny Machado has crushed lefties to the tune of a .437 wOBA, 184 wRC+, and .279 ISO with all three of his homers this season coming against southpaws. On Monday, Machado will face Yusei Kikuchi, who currently resides in the 23rd percentile in xERA (4.79), 15th percentile in average exit velocity (91.2 MPH), and 26th percentile in barrel rate (10.4%).

As a left-handed starter, it isn't a surprise to see Kikuchi struggle more versus right-handed sluggers, giving up a .356 wOBA, 1.56 HR/9, and 41.7% flyball rate to that side of the plate (compared to a .197 wOBA, 0.00 HR/9, and 37.5% flyball rate versus left-handed sluggers). Machado also boasts a .286 ISO or better against two of Kikuchi's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and changeup) versus righties since the start of the 2024 season.

Once Kikuchi exits Monday's contest, Machado will also get an opportunity to do damage against a Los Angeles Angels bullpen that has the worst HR/9 (1.87), worst barrel rate (12.2%), and second-worst hard-hit rate (45.0%). Even though Petco Park isn't typically a hitter-friendly environment, Machado still draws a favorable matchup versus Kikuchi and LA's dismal bullpen.

Get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg parlay or SGP wager on ANY sports game or event taking place on May 12th, 2025! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.