3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 4/30/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

Under 7 Runs (-102)

If you're looking for a high-scoring game, don't count on this Minnesota Twins-Cleveland Guardians matchup. Each team is in the bottom 12 of runs per game and wOBA. Additionally, both squads are putting quality pitchers on the mound.

Starting with Minnesota, its ace Pablo Lopez will be on the rubber. Through four starts, he's off to a blistering start with a 2.08 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, and 3.42 xFIP. As usual, Lopez's top three pitches are a four-seam fastball (41.8%), sweeper (24.5%), and changeup (17.9%).

Cleveland has the 10th-fewest runs above average against fastballs and the 2nd-lowest mark when facing changeups. His top put away and whiff rates are held by his changeup, perhaps boosting his 22.5 K% (54th percentile). Plus, the Guardians have been leaning on the 12th-most home runs per game, and Lopez has a 0.83 HR/9 right now.

We know Lopez has the stuff, but Luis Ortiz looks far more susceptible with his 5.96 ERA. However, positive regression feels imminent as he carries a 3.93 SIERA and 3.90 xFIP.

This is a good matchup for Ortiz, too, suggesting his ERA could begin to drop tonight. His most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (32.5%) and cutter (22.3%). Meanwhile, the Twins log the seventh-fewest runs above average against these pitches.

Giving up hard contact has been a worry for Ortiz, for he's in the 15th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 7th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed. However, Minnesota is strong from a good slugging team, ranking 24th in SLG and home run percentage.

Both bullpens ranking in the top 13 for the lowest ERAs is the icing on the cake for a low-scoring bout between the Twins and Guardians.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (-118)

After posting a 5.20 ERA a season ago, Cade Povich's numbers aren't looking much better with a 5.04 ERA following five starts. His 4.14 SIERA and 4.08 xFIP suggest the ERA could drop, but these are still mediocre marks.

Povich is tasked with facing the best batting order in baseball right now. You name it, the New York Yankees probably lead it. This includes topping MLB in batting average and OBP. Led by Aaron Judge's nine big flies, New York continues to boast impressive slugging numbers, leading the league in isolated power, home run percentage, extra-base hit rate, and SLG.

This is horrible news for Povich as he gave up a 1.36 HR/9 a season ago and currently sits at 1.44. After surrendering four dingers over his last three outings, Povich ranks in the 34th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 30th percentile in hard-hit percentage allowed.

Furthermore, the Yankees have the second-highest wOBA when facing left-handed hurlers. Fastballs and curveballs also make up two of Povich's three most-used pitches, and New York sports the 2nd-most runs above average against fastballs and 10th-most when facing curves.

Across the board, this is a concerning matchup for Povich and the O's. Baltimore's bullpen has the fourth-highest ERA, providing little relief in slowing this batting order.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cubs Over 5.5 Runs (+122)

The Chicago Cubs blitzed the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday with a 9-0 win. At 6.0 runs per game, the Cubs lead MLB in run production. In line with their season average, I like Chicago to go over 5.5 runs tonight.

Similar to Tuesday's meeting, the Cubs have another favorable matchup against a Pirates starter. This time its Carmen Mlodzinski on the mound, and he has a 6.95 ERA, 4.24 SIERA, and 3.89 xFIP. His ERA is tad inflated, but he still carries a 4.92 xERA (26th percentile).

First off, Mlodzinski's most-used pitches are fastballs and sliders. Chicago rakes against both pitches, touting the most runs above average against sliders and ninth-most when seeing fastballs. Mlodzinski has failed to finish the fifth inning in three of five starts, and facing one of baseball's most potent hitting teams should mean another short appearance. That's more bad news for Pittsburgh, for its bullpen has the 13th-highest ERA.

Considering Mlodzinski was primarily a reliever with only five total starts over the 2023 and 2024 seasons, this is gearing up to be a bullpen game for the Pirates. The bullpen only gets more concerning with the league's sixth-highest SIERA. Plus, its in the bottom half of hard-hit percentage allowed while the Cubs rank 2nd in SLG and 12th in hard-hit rate.

Pittsburgh will likely lack the stuff to slow down Chicago's buzzsaw of an offense. Another 9-0 win is likely out of the picture, but reaching at least six runs is still a sound side.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost for any LIVE wager on any MLB game happening April 30th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.