3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Belmont Derby

Key Takeaways:

• Tank is the likely pacesetter in a race without early speed, and if he handles the added distance and takes to the Saratoga turf, he could prove a major upset threat at 12-1.
• Test Score has the most balanced profile in the field—class-tested, well-bred for the stretch out, and tactical enough to strike if the front-runners tire late.
• Final Gambit may be lightly proven on turf, but his powerful Jeff Ruby win at this same distance and adaptable running style make him a serious player for Brad Cox.

Three-year-old turf horses take the spotlight on Friday, July 4, in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby. A Grade 1 race at 1 ⅛ miles on the grass, the race is the first leg of the New York Turf Triple, one of the newest traditions in horse racing. The series of prestigious stakes races for sophomores continues August 2 with the Saratoga Derby (G1) at a distance of 1 3/16 miles on the grass, and concludes with the Jockey Club Derby in early October, a race run at a range of distances during its short history but most recently at 1 ⅜ miles. The same horse winning all three of these races is a feat that has not yet been accomplished, but perhaps this will be the year!

Usually run at a distance of 1 ¼ miles at Belmont Park, the Belmont Derby has moved around while its home is under construction. Last year, it was contested at 1 3/16 miles at Aqueduct, and this year it covers 1 ⅛ miles at Saratoga Race Course. With Belmont construction expected to be finished by fall 2026, this race will likely return to its home track in 2027.

The Belmont Derby drew an intriguing field of eight. It is a mix of proven top-level turf horses, horses returning to the lawn after tries on other surfaces, and up-and-comers. This makes the Belmont Derby a particularly interesting betting race. If one of the less lauded horses gets the right pace setup or takes a step forward, it could be the key to an exciting payoff to start the long Fourth of July weekend.

These are the best bets for the 2025 Belmont Derby:

1. Tank (2025 Belmont Derby odds: 12-1)

The old adage is that the pace makes the race, and that is the hope for this Florida-bred. Hailing from the South Florida barn of trainer Carlos David, he has class to prove: Tank has never tried graded company before, much less a Grade 1 race. He also stretches to the longest distance of his career, though he has been winning at 1 1/16 miles with enough verve to think that he will stay another half furlong.

Tank’s real asset is speed. He has won three races in a row and won them all either on or close to the early lead. He faces classy company in the Belmont Derby, but he does not face any front-end dynamos here. Luis Saez, who has ridden Tank on several occasions already, is aggressive enough to take advantage of this situation. And, if Tank can run back to his victory June 7 in the Not Surprising at Gulfstream Park over this new surface against these more class-proven horses in New York, he could surprise a lot of people by winning a $750,000 game of catch-me-if-you-can as the joint longest shot on the morning line.

2. Test Score (2025 Belmont Derby odds: 4-1)

If it turns out that Tank either is not good enough to take horses of this quality coast to coast or that he cannot stay the 1 ⅛-mile distance, then the first run might be the best run. That is good news for Graham Motion trainee, Test Score. Motion trains last year’s winner Trikari, and he has a live contender again this year.

Test Score has been running in graded-stakes company since he was a maiden. He broke through in the Transylvania two starts back, where he rallied from midpack and won by 1 ¼ lengths. He returned to try the top level for the first time in the American Turf, and he was able to track in range and chase on for second behind a good horse in Zulu Kingdom. Though he is not a frontrunning sort, he is not a deep closer either, especially at this slightly longer distance than the American Turf, he may get a bit closer to the lead than he was in his previous starts.

And, though Test Score has yet to stretch out past 1 1/16 miles, the distance should be good for him. He is by Lookin at Lucky out of a Kitten’s Joy half-sister to Admission Office and Royal Fury; they are also half to Coffee Clique, a Grade 1-winning miler, but there are enough who liked going longer than that, and Lookin at Lucky is a good enough stamina influence, to make the try at 1 ⅛ miles (or even longer later) an eminently logical move.

3. Final Gambit (2025 Belmont Derby odds: 5-2)

Final Gambit still has to answer exactly how good he is on the grass—the Brad Cox charge has only tried it once, and he was a credible third on debut, so early signs aren’t bad. He also really came into his own on the Tapeta, and Tapeta form transfers to grass somewhat more reliably than other synthetics that were used.

Even though Final Gambit is usually a deep closer—a style he used to good effect in his fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby—he seems somewhat less pace-dependent than some of his other foes. His victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) testifies to that: the pace wasn’t slow, but it wasn’t the total collapse that a horse rallying from last of 12 would want, and yet he was able to move in time, finish like a good thing, and clear off to become a 3 ½-length winner. That best-ever effort also came at 1 ⅛ miles, the same distance as the Belmont Derby.

Usually, Brad Cox trainees get bet hard, and even the line maker at Saratoga thinks that will happen, as he was named the narrow morning-line favorite. But, with attention likely to be lavished on a couple of quality but pace-compromised international contenders in New Century and Luther as well as Early Adopter, who has a lot to prove but stands to get bet just because he is a Chad Brown horse in New York, Final Gambit could end up a playable price come post time on the return to the lawn.

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