3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 6/5/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates

First 5 Innings Total Runs: Under 3.5 (+104)

We shouldn't expect much scoring to begin this matchup between the Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Astros have Framber Valdez taking the mound, and he's having another strong campaign. Armed with a 58.5% ground-ball rate and 23.8% strikeout rate, the southpaw has managed a 3.16 xFIP across a dozen starts. Pittsburgh's active roster has the third-worst wRC+ (62), fourth-worst ISO (.100), and fourth-worst K rate (27.3%) versus lefties, so they could get blanked in the opening frames.

Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller has solid if unspectacular numbers, but his splits in same-handed matchups point to a success tonight. Against righties, he's put up a 3.43 xFIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, and 47.1% ground-ball rate. Houston's lineup projects to have eight right-handed bats, which should play right into Keller's hands.

At plus odds, this isn't a bad price to back a quiet start to this game.

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

First 5 Innings Run Line: Rays -0.5 (-110)

The Tampa Bay Rays should have the edge between tonight's starting pitchers, and they also own the more potent offense compared to the Texas Rangers.

Texas right-hander Jack Leiter is an obvious regression candidate. His 3.66 ERA lacks support under the hood, as Leiter comes in with a 4.94 SIERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, and 11.9% walk rate.

Tampa Bay's Ryan Pepiot is by no means a world-beater this season, but he has a respectable 4.19 SIERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. Perhaps more importantly, he might not need to be perfect against an active roster that's produced the third-worst wRC+ (89) against right-handed pitching.

On the other hand, the Rays have been quite productive versus righties with a 116 wRC+.

Given these advantages, we should see Tampa Bay out in front after five frames.

Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals

First 5 Innings Total Runs: Under 3.5 (-102)

In the second game of today's doubleheader between the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals, we shouldn't see a lot of production at the plate through the first five innings.

On one side, Royals left-hander Cole Ragans should be able to shut down the Cardinals. Despite some mediocre results lately, Ragans owns a stellar 2.26 xERA, 2.24 SIERA, 37.7% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate. A bloated .376 BABIP should flatten out, particularly considering he has above-average marks in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He should be able to handle a neutral matchup against St. Louis.

We have another lefty going on the other side, and Matthew Liberatore is in a cushy spot against these Royals hitters. Kansas City's active roster shows the second-worst wRC+ (60) and worst ISO (0.64) against southpaws. Liberatore should be able to get the job done behind a 3.27 xERA, 3.50 SIERA, 21.5% K rate, and 3.5% BB rate.

With two quality left-handers facing a pair of unimposing offenses, we should see scoring at a minimum in the first half of this game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.