3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 7/18/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

The second half of the MLB season is here. How can we get value from game odds for MLB's first day back from the All-Star break?

Starting with the Chicago White Sox against the Pittsburgh Pirates, these are two of baseball's least productive batting orders as each are in the bottom three of runs per game. However, both squads are putting a vulnerable starter on the mound. Which side of the total is the best bet?

The White Sox's Jonathan Cannon has below-average numbers with a 4.44 ERA, 4.60 SIERA, and 4.81 xFIP. These are only getting worse with Cannon carrying a 5.51 ERA over his previous four starts. With 3.36 runs per game (the fewest), it's rare to like the Pirates' matchup against any pitcher. This one is a rare occasion as pitch type is leaning in Pittsburgh's favor. A cutter (26.5%) is Cannon's most-used pitch, and the Pirates total the fourth-most runs above average against the pitch. Cannon also uses a changeup (21.9%) and sinker (21.3%), and Pittsburgh sits 5th and 16th in runs above average against each pitch. Chicago's bullpen has the third-highest SIERA, too, further pointing to runs for the Pirates.

Over the last 10 games, the Sox have totaled 3.80 runs per contest -- which is a boost from their season average of 3.42 (third-lowest). Bailey Falter has a solid 3.79 ERA on the season, but his 5.10 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP point to regression. That's been the case over his previous seven starts with a 5.17 ERA. Chicago's production spikes against left-handed pitchers with a .229 batting average (ninth-lowest) compared to .217 when facing righties (the lowest). Pittsburgh's bullpen doesn't yield much confidence with the ninth-highest SIERA themselves.

Despite this matchup featuring low-scoring teams, I still like the over for Friday's meeting.

San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-113)

The San Francisco Giants (52-45) and Toronto Blue Jays (55-41) are nearly on the same level as potential playoff squads. However, Toronto looks to have a clear advantage in producing runs with 4.58 runs per game (10th-most) compared to San Francisco recording 4.11 runs per contest (9th-lowest). On the surface, the Jays have a pitching advantage, too, as Chris Bassitt has a 4.12 ERA while Justin Verlander carries a 4.70 ERA. It seems Toronto could dominate in the early going, but does this check out with the numbers?

Verlander is certainly showing his age these days, touting a concerning 4.38 SIERA and 4.54 xFIP. Plus, he has a 5.47 ERA over his previous five starts and 8.00 ERA in his last two. Paired with concerning numbers, opponents hit .329 when runners are in scoring position against Verlander. The Blue Jays already do a terrific job of getting on base often with a .258 batting average (second-highest) and 8.72 hits per game (fourth-most). Furthermore, Toronto has upped its production to 4.70 runs per contest over the last 10 contests.

Bassitt rounds out the favorable matchup in the first five innings, carrying a 4.12 ERA, 3.73 SIERA, and 3.72 xFIP. As his advanced stats suggest, positive regression has arrived with a 2.84 ERA over his previous three starts. The Giants are also in the bottom 11 of runs above average against two of his top three pitches (cutter and curveball). San Francisco's batting order already pales in comparison to the Jays. One of its few strengths is touting the fourth-most walks per game, but Bassitt ranks in the 79th percentile of walk rate allowed.

Across the board, this looks like a great matchup for Toronto. This could change in the later innings with San Francisco's bullpen boasting the lowest ERA compared to the Jays carrying the eighth-worst mark, narrowing my focus to the Blue Jays covering the run line in the first five.

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Under 7.5 Runs (-105)

The Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets each come into tonight's meeting with recent up-and-down play with Cincy holding a 5-5 record over the last 10 while New York is 6-4 during the span. This should be a pretty even matchup, especially with each team putting a strong starter on the bump. This is our angle for a favorable game line.

Each team struggles against left-handed pitchers with New York touting a .247 batting average against righties (16th) and .233 when facing southpaws (18th). There's a more harsh drop off for the Reds at .254 against right-handed hurlers (10th) and .224 when facing southpaws (25th).

For Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo has strong numbers across the board with a 3.38 ERA, 3.75 SIERA, and 3.88 xFIP. This has gotten even better of recent with a 2.28 ERA over his previous five. Lodolo's curveball has his best put away rate, and the Mets have the fourth-fewest runs above average against this pitch.

Sean Manaea is more difficult to figure out as he's made only one appearance as a reliever on July 13. It was a promising season debut by giving up only one earned run over 3.1 innings pitched. He will finally make his first start of the season after dealing with oblique and elbow injuries. Manaea enjoyed a strong 2024 season with a 3.47 ERA and 3.96 SIERA over 32 starts. The Reds' struggles against southpaws generates confidence -- which also involves their star Elly De La Cruz holding a .233 batting average against lefties compared to .308 when facing righties. Cincy has logged only 3.70 runs per game over the last 10 compared to 4.55 on the season (13th-most).

Rounding out the under pick, each bullpen is in the top 16 for the lowest ERAs this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.