3 Best Bets to Win the 2026 Fourstardave Stakes

Key Takeaways:

• The Whitney serves as a pivotal Breeders’ Cup Mile qualifier, and this year’s renewal brings together a compact but deep horse racing field led by defending champion Deterministic and several proven Grade 1 performers.
• Weather could play a major role, with rain-softened turf expected to influence the outcome and potentially favor horses already proven over less-than-firm ground.
• Zulu Kingdom looks well positioned to capitalize if the turf has some give, combining proven Grade 1 class with tactical versatility and an ideal profile for the expected race conditions.
• Deterministic has every chance to defend his title, bringing the same winning prep pattern as last year along with the adaptability to stalk a contested pace and handle softer footing.
• Lagynos enters on a five-race winning streak and continues to trend upward, making him an appealing value play if he can transfer his strong middle-distance form to this Grade 1 mile test.

The road to the Breeders’ Cup Mile on October 31 at Keeneland gets serious, with one of the most important qualifying races of the year happening August 8 at Saratoga Race Course: the Grade 1 Fourstardave Stakes at one mile on the inner turf. Formerly known as the Daryl’s Joy Stakes and the Fourstardave Handicap, the race is now run under weight-for-age conditions. This year’s renewal of the Fourstardave is a proper Grade 1 race, featuring some of the best milers and middle-distance turf horses in North America.

The race drew a field of seven, though up to six are expected to run. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has two entries, both Poker (G3) winner Mi Bago and Just a Game (G1) winner Classic Q, though he told Daily Racing Form that only one of the two is expected to run. This makes sense: both do their best work on the lead, so it makes sense not to run the frontrunners against each other.

The field is led by Deterministic, last year’s winner, who carries a five-win streak into this title defense attempt. However, a repeat victory is no guarantee with foes including Zulu Kingdom Rhetorical, the red-hot Lagynos, one of the Casse pair, and up-and-coming Capitol Hill set to line up against him. Everyone in the field except Capitol Hill has graded-stakes victories to their name – and even Capitol Hill, trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, is only a nose shy of one.

The Fourstardave is the 10th of 14 races on the Saturday card in Saratoga Springs. It is one of four top-level races on the day, one of the best of the summer racing season. The card also features the Whitney (G1), a Breeders’ Cup Classic qualifier featuring Magnitude, Sovereignty, Baeza, White Abarrio, and Nitrogen. Three-year-old sprint fillies take center stage in the Test (G1), and grass sophomores shine in the Saratoga Derby (G1). Racing gets underway at 11:45 a.m. EDT, with the Fourstardave set to go at 5:14 p.m. EDT.

2026 Fourstardave Picks

These are the three Fourstardave Stakes best bets along with morning-line odds for each horse:

1. Zulu Kingdom (2026 Fourstardave Stakes odds: 7-2)

One of the major concerns in the 2026 Fourstardave is the condition of the turf. It’s a rainy week at Saratoga, and the weather is still likely to be wet on Saturday afternoon. Most of the horses in the field are either unproven over softer ground, or have already shown they don’t love running on it. Zulu Kingdom, on the other hand, has raced over less-than-firm ground three times – and has three win pictures to show for it.

Zulu Kingdom is a Grade 1 winner at a mile, meaning he has all the class he needs to belong here. His running style is also a positive. With a decent amount of speed in the race, his tactical pace should allow him to get a good trip under his regular rider, Flavien Prat. And, though Prat and trainer Chad Brown are often a recipe for a horse to get heavily bet, Zulu Kingdom is still likely to fly under the radar compared to defending champion Deterministic and even possibly Rhetorical, given Rhetorical’s excellent performance in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year. This all adds up to a great time to bet Zulu Kingdom.

2. Deterministic (2026 Fourstardave Stakes odds: 2-1)

Deterministic won this race last year, and he comes back in similarly good form. Last year he won it off of wins in the Fort Marcy (G2) and the Manhattan (G1) … and this year he rides into the race off of victories in the same two preps (though the Fort Marcy was a Grade 3 this year). Those are both longer races than this, meaning he’ll be fit for the cutback. And, unlike some of the other contenders, the rain isn’t a serious concern for him – he won the Manhattan over good ground at Saratoga last year and was a closing third in the Saratoga Derby (G1) under such conditions two years ago.

In terms of pace, though the Miguel Clement trainee tends to go gate-to-wire in longer races, he showed his stalking gear last out in the Manhattan and had it on full display last year when he won the Fourstardave. With plenty of speed in this spot – whichever of Mi Bago or Classic Q that Mark Casse decides to keep in, plus Rhetorical who will probably have to be forward from the rail, the fact that Deterministic has the ability to track even a fast pace and battle to the wire makes him a big threat from this nice middle gate. That means, even as the morning-line favorite, he shapes as the kind of horse who can run to those expectations.

3. Lagynos (2026 Fourstardave Stakes odds: 5-1)

Lagynos is taking a shot in the Fourstardave – unlike several of his foes, i.e., his unproven at the top level, as he finished only seventh behind Deterministic last year. However, he is already a multiple graded-stakes winner and a better horse now than he was then. He is riding a five-win streak into the Fourstardave, and though he doesn’t tend to win by flashy margins, he just keeps showing up – rallying from a few lengths off the pace and getting the job done.

This post, at the outside of a relatively small field, should help him get that kind of trip once again. The pace should set up well for that, too – Lagynos is able to rally and win whether the pace in front of him is pedestrian or a little faster; it should be at least honest here, even with one of the Casse speed horses expected to scratch. Some cut in the ground isn’t a problem either; he won the Wise Dan (G2) last out at Churchill Downs despite rain-affected going.

The biggest question for Lagynos is a mile, as he really is more of a middle-distance horse. However, Jose Ortiz got him home going a mile three back in the Opening Verse, and he was also a credible second under Ortiz in the Mint Millions (G3) last year at Kentucky Downs. Lagynos will need to run one of his best races, but his back form suggests there’s another step forward he can take off his last, and that should be enough to put him in the picture and make him the most likely of the longer shots to make an impact.

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