2024 U.S. Open Betting Odds: Scottie Scheffler Is the Favorite

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
2024 U.S. Open Betting Odds: Scottie Scheffler Is the Favorite

After the conclusion of the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday, we are now less than two weeks away from golf's third major of the year -- the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst (No. 2) in Pinehurst, North Carolina.

Starting on Thursday, June 13th, a stacked field will attempt to join Scottie Scheffler (The Masters) and Xander Schauffele (PGA Championship) as major winners this year. To do so, they will have to triumph at a course that, historically, has been incredibly difficult -- in the last two U.S. Opens held at Pinehurst (No. 2) in 2005 and 2014, only three players combined finished under par.

According to the U.S. Open odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Scheffler (+480) is still favored to win this year's U.S. Open.

Who is behind him in second, and how does the rest of the field look as we approach the start of the tournament?

Below is a list of the full odds and a breakdown of the current favorites.

2024 U.S. Open Odds

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Scottie Scheffler+480
Rory McIlroy+1000
Xander Schauffele+1100
Viktor Hovland+1700
Bryson DeChambeau+2100
Ludvig Aberg+2100
Brooks Koepka+2400
View Full Table

Scottie Scheffler (+480)

Until Scottie Scheffler's current run of form ends, expect to see him listed as the favorite in every tournament he enters. With the charges related to his incident outside the PGA Championship in May officially dropped, the world No. 1 will head to Pinehurst as a significant favorite.

Scheffler has never won the U.S Open, but he has come close, with a runner-up finish at The Country Club in 2022 (losing by one stroke to Matt Fitzpatrick) and a third-place finish at LACC in 2023 (behind both Rory McIlroy and winner Wyndham Clark). Combined with his T7 finish at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines (South), Scheffler has finished inside the top 10 in his last three U.S. Open appearances.

Pending the outcome of this week's signature event, the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club, Scheffler will enter the 2024 U.S. Open in historically dominant form. He has finished T10 or better in 11 of his 12 events this season, with four wins and two runner-up finishes. Pinehurst (No. 2) will be a compelling test for the world's best -- but Scheffler has all the answers to that test. His putting woes? Possibly a thing of the past as he has gained strokes putting in each of his last seven events.

Rory McIlroy (+1000)

Rory McIlroy leads a mini, two-golfer tier that sits well below Scheffler in first but well above the golfer in fourth -- Viktor Hovland (+1700). Xander Schauffele (+1100) joins McIlroy in that tier, and together they project as Scheffler's most significant competition at Pinehurst.

McIlroy is still searching for his elusive fifth major, a drought that extends back to his victory at the 2014 PGA Championship. His closest call since then came at last year's U.S. Open, when he finished in solo second, one stroke behind Wyndham Clark. Since 2019, the U.S Open has been McIlroy's best major -- with five top-10 finishes. He has improved every year, T9 (2019), T8 (2020), T7 (2021), T5 (2022), and second (2023). It hasn't resulted in a victory, but outside of his missed cut at the 2023 Masters, McIlroy has been fantastic in majors since 2022 with seven top-10 finishes including four top-five showings.

Rory backed up his win at the Wells Fargo Championship in early May with a T12 at the PGA Championship and a T4 at the RBC Canadian Open. He has gained strokes in every category in each of his last three events -- his first time doing so since a four-event stretch in 2023 from June-July that included a win at the Genesis Scottish Open. At his best, McIlroy has the game to challenge Scheffler at Pinehurst and finally capture the fifth major of his career.

Xander Schauffele (+1100)

If not for the existence of Scheffler, a case could easily be made that Xander Schauffele is the best golfer in the world right now. In data golf's skill ratings, he is second in total strokes gained (+2.66 strokes per round) -- 0.57 strokes behind Scheffler but 0.42 strokes above McIlroy in third.

Schauffele's triumph at the PGA Championship was a long time coming. His consistency, especially in majors, has been remarkable. He has finished T18 or better in his last nine majors. Schauffele has done well at The Masters, but, until his win at the PGA Championship, his best major performances have come at the U.S Open. In seven appearances since 2017, he has never finished worse than T14 (2022) with six top-10 finishes and three top fives.

When he tees off at the Memorial Tournament this week, Schauffele will be golfing for the first time since finally freeing himself of all the questions surrounding his lack of recent victories. With a first major secured, the sky could be the limit for Schauffele, who has 10 top-20 finishes in 13 events this season, including six top fives.

Looking at strokes gained averages, he is playing the best golf of his career right now (+2.79 total strokes gained per round in 2024). That is driven by a career-best average in strokes gained: around the green (+0.44) and strokes gained: off the tee (+0.87) and the second-best averages of his PGA Tour career in strokes gained: approach (+1.04) and strokes gained: putting (+0.61). If someone is going to best Scheffler at Pinehurst, why not the one golfer in the field who has already done so at a major this year?

Viktor Hovland (+1700)

Since the start of 2024, we have been waiting for Victor Hovland to display the dominant game that saw him secure back-to-back victories at the BMW Championship and Tour Championship last August. After those victories, the expectation was that Hovland would be a consistent force in the biggest events moving forward -- but the opposite happened.

After heavily tinkering with his swing, Hovland had just one top-20 finish in seven events entering the PGA Championship. He was so unsure of his game that he even considered pulling out of the year's second major. Instead, after reuniting with instructor Joe Mayo -- who pinpointed a feel for Hovland to recreate -- the Norwegian finished third.

At Valhalla, Hovland's entire game was dialed in -- his +4.08 total strokes gained was his fourth-best performance in his last 25 starts, behind only his previously mentioned victories and his T2 at the 2023 PGA Championship.

Finally, we have seen a performance from Hovland that inspires confidence. More importantly, Hovland has produced a performance that should allow him to be confident in his own game heading to Pinehurst -- a drastic turnaround from where he was a month ago. First, he will defend his title at The Memorial this week. If he produces another solid performance, his odds could shorten.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2100)

Someone who should certainly not be lacking in confidence at the moment is Bryson DeChambeau. The 2020 U.S. Open winner is coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship after finishing T6 at The Masters. In terms of strokes gained averages, he is having the best season of his career, posting new bests in strokes gained: putting (+0.80), strokes gained: around the green (+0.38), strokes gained: approach (+0.88) and, of course, strokes gained: off the tee (+1.71).

The lack of complete shot link data from LIV events clouds the picture slightly, but what we have seen from DeChambeau has been extremely impressive. He has four top-10 finishes in his last seven major appearances and finished first (The Masters) and second (PGA Championship) in strokes gained: off the tee at this year's majors.

Outside of his win in 2020, DeChambeau has struggled at the U.S Open with just two other top-20 finishes (2016 and 2023). His putting let him down in 2022 and 2023, and his play around the greens (-1.97 strokes per round) resulted in a T26 finish in 2021.

In 2024, his putting has been excellent at the majors -- +0.53 strokes gained at The Masters and +1.07 strokes gained at the PGA Championship. He struggled slightly around the greens at Augusta (-0.21 strokes per round), but he has gained strokes around the green in three of his last four majors.

Pinehurst's (No.2) turtle-shell greens make approach play extremely difficult, which should lead to an increased emphasis on play around the greens. If DeChambeau can excel there, the rest of his game is certainly good enough to get the job done.

Ludvig Aberg (+2100)

Prior to his missed cut at the PGA Championship, Ludvig Aberg's 2024 season was off to a fantastic start. His play around the greens (-0.76 strokes per round) resulted in him missing the cut by one stroke at the PGA -- his first missed cut of 2024 and his second missed cut in the last two years. If Aberg's play since joining the PGA Tour is any indication, that missed cut should be a small speedbump on his road to the top.

In 11 starts this season, Aberg has seven top 20s, including five top 10s and a solo second at The Masters. He is fifth in the world in total strokes gained (+1.95 strokes per round) and fourth in strokes gained: off the tee (+0.92). He will be making his U.S. Open debut, which isn't ideal, but after a second-place finish at Augusta National -- a course that rewards prior experience more than any other -- that is hardly a reason to doubt him.

Aberg's struggles around the green are a legitimate concern. He has lost strokes around the green in seven of his 11 events this season, including losing at least 0.50 strokes per round in three of his last four events. Despite those lost strokes at The Masters, he still finished second thanks to leading the field in strokes gained: putting. If his struggles around the green continue, Aberg will need to rely on his approach game to mitigate those concerns. Thankfully, that is an area he excels in.

Aberg's two major appearances this season have produced drastically different results. His talent indicates that future results are likely to be closer to his second-place finish at The Masters than his missed cut at the PGA Championship.

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