2 Best WNBA First Basket Props for Friday 6/27/25

Over a 40-minute WNBA game, a lot can happen, but the action gets underway right at the opening tip-off.

And, although the first basket of the game is a small piece to the puzzle of the eventual winner, we can dig into usage and tip-off trends to examine the WNBA first basket markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

WNBA First Basket Picks and Props for Tonight

Minnesota Lynx at Atlanta Dream

Allisha Gray (+600)

Brittney Griner's elite jump-ball history has led to some promising first-basket trends in Atlanta's favor this season, and with Alanna Smith jumping for the Lynx lately, there's likely a big edge for Atlanta to have the first shot tonight.

Gray leads the Dream in first shot attempts and has scored first in three games so far this season.

The shot frequency splits (via PBPStats) for Atlanta with their projected starting lineup trend toward Jordin Canada (+1000, 23.7%), Gray (+600, 22.1%), and Brionna Jones (+600, 21.4%), though early-game trends are a little more favorable to Gray.

New York Liberty at Phoenix Mercury

Sabrina Ionescu (+550)

While it's true it's technically a downgrade to have Breanna Stewart jumping for the Liberty instead of Jonquel Jones, Stewie has been a plus in winning jumpballs in her career.

She should help get the Liberty the first possession jumping against Satou Sabally based on historical data (around 60% likely).

Overall, the Liberty have scored first in 10 of 14 games, and Sabrina Ionescu has taken the first shot for New York in 5 of 14 games and in 3 of the last 6.

Overall, Ionescu has a 28.7% first-quarter usage rate this year, seventh-best among all players with at least 10 games played, and is averaging 6.8 first-quarter points per game (second-best in the WNBA).

Stewart (25.9% first-quarter usage rate and 6.1 first-quarter points per game) is close behind Ionescu and is also +550 to score first.

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