2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Bengals at Cowboys on Monday Night Football

Tonight should be a fun time if you love The Simpsons. ESPN is doing an alternate broadcast in the universe for tonight's Cincinnati Bengals-Dallas Cowboys game.

The watchability on the normal stream shouldn't be bad, either. Poor defense has forced both teams to tumble out of the playoff races even if Dallas might be slightly alive in the weaker NFC, but these teams have also shown in recent weeks they can put up points.

The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites in Jerry World tonight. Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bengals at Cowboys Betting Picks

Over 49.5 Points (-108)
Bengals Over 27.5 Points (-108)

If you just looked at the Bengals through the prism of their offense, they look like a playoff team, and Joe Burrow looks like an MVP candidate.

Cincinnati is numberFire's sixth-best schedule-adjusted offense overall. Entering Week 14, Burrow himself was sixth among NFL qualifiers in expected points added per drop back (0.11 EPA/db) and led the league is passing yards (278.1) and passing touchdowns (2.5) per game.

Chase Brown's 0.43 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c) has also been a boost to the run game in a near-every-down role since Zack Moss' injury.

The Cowboys' defense sits 28th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings, and they've had trouble in particular at home (34.5 points per game allowed). Enter one of the best scoring attacks in the entire league.

However, the Bengals have a 2-6 record scoring at least 25 points this season for a reason. Their defense is 27th or worse in nF's rankings against both the rush and the pass. It's also U-G-L-Y with no alibi.

Therefore, we can probably expect another shootout for Cincy. Cooper Rush and the Cowboys have averaged 24.0 points on offense in the last two weeks against two defenses that grade out better than the Stripes. They seem outgunned in this firefight, but CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) will play as Rico Dowdle looks to build off his first 100-yard rushing game of the year.

I can't lay points with the Cincinnati defense playing as it is currently, but I'll happily play this over. According to our Brandon Gdula's Week 14 adjusted pace and pass report, Dallas is a top-10 team in adjusted pace and pass rate over expectation (PROE). Cincinnati doesn't have elite tempo (20th) but makes up for it with the league's highest PROE.

If you're afraid of Rush short-circuiting on extended rest, the Bengals' team total is also an option, which currently snags a key number of 28 points -- or 4 touchdowns -- against the NFL's worst red zone defense (76.9% TD rate allowed).

Get ready for Monday Night Football! Try TWO 30% Profit Boost Tokens to use on a "Player to Catch a Pass" wager on the Bengals vs. Cowboys NFL game happening December 9th. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.