2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Thursday 8/7/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (+106)

Given the concerning first-inning metrics for both pitchers in Thursday's clash between the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners, I'm willing to take a chance on backing a YRFI in this matchup at these odds.

Currently, Shane Smith (14-5 NRFI record) will square off against Logan Gilbert (8-7 NRFI record) in a game where the White Sox are trying to avoid a sweep in the three-game series.

Up to this point, Smith is tallying a below-average 4.80 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, .321 BABIP, and 13.2% walk rate in the opening frame of his starts. Aside from Smith giving up five-plus earned runs in four of his last six outings, he surrendered three runs in the first inning when he faced the Mariners on May 21.

While Gilbert is known as a dominant pitcher, he's logging a .303 BABIP and 1.80 HR/9 in the opening inning, and Chicago's lineup has shown signs of life over the last month or so.

The Mariners' offense has the fifth-best wOBA (.347), third-best wRC+ (129), and fifth-best ISO (.222) in the first inning this season, and the White Sox's offense has earned the seventh-best wOBA (.374), eighth-best wRC+ (141), and second-best ISO (.311) in the opening frame across the last 30 days.

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)

Taking a YRFI in a game that features Logan Gilbert and backing a NRFI in a contest that has Carlos Carrasco on the bump seems backwards, but there are metrics to support us having confidence in Carrasco coming away unscathed in the first inning on Thursday.

Besides Carrasco possessing a perfect 7-0 NRFI record in 2025 despite the fact he's sporting a 4.56 SIERA and 4.62 xFIP overall, he's notching the 34th-best xFIP (3.19), 21st-best BABIP (.200), 8th-best WHIP (0.71), and 20th-best strikeout rate (32.0%) in the first inning among pitchers with seven-plus starts.

As for the Miami Marlins, they've recorded the eighth-worst wOBA (.310), ninth-worst wRC+ (96), and eight-worst ISO (.143) in the first inning this year. Even with Miami showing improvements at the plate recently, Carrasco's splits in the opening inning are enough for me to take him to rack up three outs before coughing up a run.

Eury Perez (7-3 NRFI record) is slated to start for the Marlins on Thursday, and he's looked fantastic across his last six starts, posting the 13th-best SIERA (3.28), 4th-best BABIP (.184), 3rd-best WHIP (0.68), and 6th-highest strikeout rate (29.8%) among starters during that span. Due to his improved production recently, Perez has gone four consecutive outings without giving up a run in the first inning, putting him in a good spot to hold the Atlanta Braves to zero runs in the first inning if he can avoid issuing walks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.